Sunday, January 16, 2022

Bets/Staking rationale

Best bets

Kempton

3:15
Caribean Boy 0.5pt win 7/2



Matrix bets 

Kempton

2:40
Ch’tibello 1 unit win CEP 21 FP 13
William Henry 1 unit win CEP 30 FP 21
Call me Lord 1 unit win CEP 48 FP 26
Quinto du Mar 1 unit win CEP 24 FP 17

3:15
A Toi Phil 1 unit win CEP 8.8 FP 9

Warwick

2:25
Viva Lavilla 2 units win CEP 6 FP 6
Scipion 1 unit win CEP 12 FP 11

3:00
Gericault Roque 3 units win CEP 5.7 FP 6
Eclair Surf 1 unit win CEP 14 FP 13
Notachance  1 unit win CEP 16 FP 13


When the final decs came through on Thursday, I had a feeling that I would struggle to find any strong bets today.
Obviously, the small fields don’t help - but it wasn’t just that…

There are more than enough runners in the 2 main races: but the Lanzarote hurdle is frighteningly open looking; and whilst I do fancy one in the Classic chase - 7/2 is a crazy price in a 15 runner handicap over nearly 4 miles (even if you simply allow for the ‘luck’ element).

In the other races, then the general issue is that it’s hard to see an angle into most of them.
It’s possible to construct half cases for plenty of runners - but the markets have most of them in the right place.

As a consequence, there aren’t many official bets.
Just the one Best bet - plus a few for the Matrix (most of which are in the 2 main races).

Here’s a bit more detail on my thinking…

Kempton

The 1:32 typifies the day !
All 7 of the runners can be given a chance - and there’s no obvious angle to latch on to.
I was half tempted to suggested Falco Blitz, as I do think he will run well.
However, I suspect he is most likely to run well and get placed - as he certainly hasn’t got a lot in hand of his mark and would prefer to be going the other way round.
Locks Corner could be of interest, if the money arrives - but we’ll need to wait a little while to see if that happens…

Mister Fisher appeals most in the 2:05 - but I can’t see any value in a price of 7/4.
I think he’s the best horse in the race - but he comes with risks and is up against 3 talented rivals.
At 5/2, I would have been interested - but I doubt he’ll hit that price.
The alternative is Rouge Vif - and 9/2 is a fair price on him. However, I suspect he is that price because connections know he’s not quite where they want him…

The 2:40 really is a ridiculously competitive race.
It’s easy to make a decent case for around a dozen of the runners - so it’s therefore, hard to take single figures about any of them…
There are at least 4 horses which I think are significantly over-priced on the exchanges, so my inclination is to pick them off for the Matrix.
The horses in question are Ch’tibello, Quinto do Mar, William Henry and Call me Lord.
I don’t think the race lends itself to a full Matrix, as there really are too many in with a chance - but collectively, if you can get around 7/1 any of those 4 winning, I think that’s a fair bet…

Caribean Boy strikes me as just about the best bet of the day, in the 3:15
He could be very well handicapped (even with top weight): whilst the conditions of the race look ideal for him (3 miles and a small field).
Furthermore I’m not overly fearful of many of his rivals.
Certainly, I much prefer his chance to that of the 2 horses immediately behind him in the betting (Kittys Light and Smarty Wild).
A Toi Phil is the potential joker in the pack - and he’s worth covering for the Matrix, just in case…


Warwick

Not Available is arguably a fair bet to topple Brave Seasca in the 1:18 - but I find it hard to get excited about an 11/4 shot which I don’t consider the most likely race winner !
I do think it’s between the pair of them - but so too does the betting (tho Sky Pirate is a bit shorter than I would have expected).

The 1:50 race has no appeal from a betting perspective.
Threeunderthrufive should win - but he’s not a horse that I’ve particularly taken to.
In fact, I would happily oppose him, if I could find something to oppose him with !
Mint Condition is the obvious one - but he would prefer deeper ground.
Half cases could be made for the other 3 - but they would rely on the favourite under-performing (which isn’t impossible)

Surrey Quest has drifted in the 2:25 - which I think is correct.
He was too short last night - and even at 3/1 this morning, makes limited appeal…
The trouble is, all of the runners can be given some kind of a chance.
Viva Lavilla is the one I like most - and 5/1 is a reasonable price. Whilst Scipion is the most interesting of the outsiders…
There’s a fair amount of guesswork required - but I think the pair of them are worth covering on the Matrix.

I like Gericault Roque in the 3:00 - but so too does the betting !
At 5/1 he would have been a Best bet - but not at 7/2 (which was the price available just after 9:00).
In truth, it is quite a strong race - and his credentials aren’t bomb proof, so I think the best way to play him, is via the Matrix.
Eclair Surf and Notachance are worth covering on the Matrix, from a ‘value’ perspective.

Riggs looks just a little bit too obvious in the 3:35 !
He has every reason to win - whilst most of his rivals have every reason not to win !
Alaphilippe is the obvious alternative - but we can only guess on his fitness…
If Riggs is around 6/4 at the off (a price I could easily justify), then I’ll believe I’ve read it right.
However, I feel uncomfortable suggesting a horse mainly for reasons outside the form book (which would be the case with him).

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