The final day of an intense week - during which things haven’t been helped by a
constant moving of the of the goal posts ! (ie. changing ground conditions)
It’s hard to know how it will be riding tomorrow - but after a drying
day, I suspect it will be on the soft side of good (so similar to how it was on
Tuesday !).
That seemed unimaginable on Wednesday afternoon - but
Cheltenham is a quick draining course - and coupled with good weather, the
ground will dry out very quickly.
Again however, that’s guesswork on my
behalf - which isn’t great when you are trying to assess races.
Anyway,
it is what it is !
For now, I’ll just focus on the form - and delay
making a call on conditions until tomorrow morning.
Here are my early
thoughts on the final days races…
Cheltenham
1:30
Irish runners dominate the head of the betting for the Triumph
hurdle - which is understandable.
The only time the British and Irish
runner have met this season, was when Pied Piper came over to Cheltenham and
contested the Triumph hurdle trial, at the end of January.
Admittedly he
didn’t face the very best British juveniles that day - but he barely broke sweat
in coming home 9 lengths clear of his nearest rival.
At that time, he wasn’t
even considered the best juvenile in Gordon Elliotts stable - which suggests
that the Irish juveniles were superior by some margin.
And nothing that has
happened since has really contradicted that feeling - the question is more,
which is the best of the Irish…
Prior to the Dublin Racing festival, it was
thought to be Fil Dor - a stablemate of Pied Piper.
However, he was soundly
beaten by Vauban at the DRF - and there is no obvious reason why that form
should be reversed.
That said, Vauban had been beaten by Pied Piper, on his
previous outing at Punchestown.
That was his first run for Willie Mullins -
though he had run 4 times previously in France, so didn’t lack experience.
The circle is therefore complete: Fil Dor is considered better than Pied
Piper; but Pied Pier beat Vauban; and Vauban beat Fil Dor !
In short, you
pay your money and make your choice !
Icare Allen and Il Etait Temps are 2
other Irish trained runners, who can’t be easily dismissed.
Like Vauban,
both are trained by Willie Mullins - and both ran in the Spring juvenile, won by
Vauban.
Icare Allen was quite well fancied for that race - but disappointed.
He has subsequently bounced back with an easy win at Fairyhouse; whilst Il Etait
Temps ran a massive race on his Irish debut to finish third.
Of the pair, Il
Etait Temps looks the more interesting…
The admirable Knight Salute is
probably the best of the home defence.
He’s unbeaten in 5 races over hurdles
- and has a great attitude,.
However, he almost certainly doesn’t have the
ability of the Irish horses.
If the ground was heavy, then Porticello would
become interesting.
He has bolted up in his 2 most recent starts, on very
heavy ground - though was beaten by Knight Salute on decent ground at Doncaster.
Whilst the Dan Skelton trained Doctor Parnassus is unbeaten in 2 starts -
and literally could be anything.
That said, he’s going to have to be pretty
good, if he’s going to win this on his third start over hurdles…
2:10
A trio of Irish novices are at the head of the market for this -
which is hardly ideal !
A lot of guesswork will be required to try and
establish how well handicapped they are - and connections of the horses will be
better placed to judge than we are !
That’s particularly true for the
early favourite, State Man.
He’s only run 3 times in his life - and just
twice for Willie Mullins.
Furthermore, he fell on the first occasion -
before bolting up by 12 lengths at odds on 1/7, at Limerick last month.
How
the handicapper has decided on a mark for him, is beyond me !
He is clearly
held in high regard by the stable - and could easily be a graded horse in a
handicap.
That said, as we saw with Gaellic Warrior on Tuesday, the best
horse doesn’t always win these ultra competitive handicaps - experience counts
for a lot…
The Gordon Elliott trained Top Bandit has a bit more experience -
having run 4 times over hurdles.
He also has course experience, as he beat
Brorsun at the October meeting.
That’s reasonable form - and an opening mark
of 139 for him, looks fair.
Colonel Mustard is a second season novice and
much more experienced than the other 2.
He’s been beaten by Jonbon and Sir
Gerhard on his 2 most recent starts - so has been mixing with the best.
His
opening mark of 140 looks attractive - though his ability to cope with the
hustle and bustle of a big field of seasoned handicappers, has to be taken on
trust.
Away from the novices, West Cork looks the most interesting of the
exposed handicappers.
He won a red hot running of the Greatwood over course
and distance in November, and hasn’t been overly harshly treated with a 7lb
rise.
The form of that race simply couldn’t have worked out any better - and
whilst he has disappointed on his only subsequent run, you can bet your life
that Dan Skelton will have him spot on for this.
He really should be the one
to beat…
Surprise Package bolted up in the Imperial Cup at Sandown on
Saturday - and in theory, should have every chance with just a 5lb penalty.
However, I struggle a little to see him winning his second big handicap in a
week.
I like to Move it makes more appeal.
He was runner up in the
Betfair hurdle on his most recent start - and the winner, Glory and Fortune,
franked that form with an excellent run in the Champion hurdle.
I like to
Move it showed a great attitude that day and still has scope for improvement.
Jesse Evans is perhaps the most interesting of those at big prices.
He
finished fourth in the Galway hurdle - and was sent off favourite for the
Greatwood, but ran disappointingly.
If he can bounce back to form, then he
is likely to outrun his odds.
Whilst Tempo Chapter Two looks an intriguing
runner for Willie Mullins.
He’s only run 3 times in novice hurdles for
Mullins - and not jumped particularly well - so it seems odd that he is being
thrown into a massive field handicap !
Perhaps Willie has seen something in
the horse, that the rest of us haven’t…
2:50This looks a
near impossible puzzle to solve - and I suspect I won’t try..!
I really
hope that Hillcreast can win it for Henry Daly - as he’s a trainer I’ve always
liked and it would be good to see him get a Cheltenham winner.
And
undoubtedly the horse has a chance…
He’s absolutely huge - and possesses a
significant engine.
He powered home at the course, on new years day - and
did the same again last time at Haydock, when stepped up to 3 miles.
The
trip certainly won’t be an issue for him - though very soft ground would
probably be ideal.
I think he will run well - but suspect that will be
outspeeded up the home straight by one or two of the Irish horses.
Figuring
out which ones is the tricky bit…
Ginto is the obvious one, after his last
time out win in the Lawlors of Naas hurdle.
He should appreciate stepping up
to 3 miles - and probably sets the race standard.
Minella Crooner won a
grade 1 novice event at the DRF - and on that form, has a good chance.
However, he got the run of the race that day, under a canny ride from Danny
Mullins, and I’d be a little worried about his stamina lasting out over the
longer trip.
Shantreusse looks to have stamina to burn - and must have a
good chance of providing Henry De Bromhead with a second winner in the race.
He has progressed with every run this season - and whilst he was beaten in a
bumper by Ginto last season, he may have improved sufficiently to reverse that
form.
The Nice Guy is unbeaten in 3 runs - and was impressive last time,
when winning on his hurdling debut.
This race represents a big step up in
class - but he clearly has a lot of ability.
Half chances can be given to a
number of the others - so it certainly isn’t a race that can be tackled with
confidence !
3:30 I’m really surprised to see that Galvin
has usurped A Plus Tard at the head of the betting for the Gold cup.
Whilst it’s true that he beat him last time, in Savills chase - A Plus
Tard did appear a slightly unlucky loser that day.
Things didn’t go quite
right for him in the race - and Galvin just managed to run him down close home.
It’s a little harsh to take anything away from the winner - but it did seem
like a bit of a fluke result.
I guess the issue with Galvin, is that I don’t
really think that he has the class required to win a Gold cup.
He was beaten
off a mark of 142 at the 2020 festival; and whilst he did win at last years
festival - a narrow defeat of Next Destination and Escaria Ten, is hardly top
class form.
He was also beaten by Frodon at Down Royal in October - when
race fit - so the win the Savills was a bit of a bolt out of the blue.
That
said, maybe he’s improving - and soft ground would certainly aid his cause.
I would give him a good chance of placing - but winning feels a step too
far…
A Plus Tard and Minella Indo are the 2 who interest me most, from a win
perspective.
They finished first and second last year - and I wouldn’t be
overly surprised if they did the same this time round.
Minella Indo came out
on top 12 months ago - but he was given a sublime ride by Jack Kennedy.
Robbie Power is in the saddle this time - and that doesn’t strike me as a
positive move.
Minella Indo is also a year older than A Plus Tard, so there
must be every chance that A Plus Tard has made the greater improvement in the
interim.
That certainly looked to be the case first time up this season,
when A Plus Tard was a hugely impressive winner of the Betfair chase at Haydock.
If he can recapture that form then he sets a very high standard.
Protektorat heads the home defence on the back of an unbelievable win in the
Many Clouds chase at Aintree in December.
That race was run on desperate
ground - and Protektorat pulled throughout - yet still came home 25 lengths
clear of his nearest rival.
The trouble is, the form may amount to very
little - as none of his rivals handled the conditions.
On the flip side,
he’s only 7 - and relatively unexposed - so could still have plenty of
improvement in him.
Of the others: Royal Pagaille will only have a chance,
if the ground is desperate: whilst dual winner Al Boom Photo is likely to
struggle to match last years third place.
Tornado Flyer is interesting,
based on his last time out win in the King George - though the race did fall
apart that day; and whilst Asterion Forlonge is a complete enigma, he’s a
talented one !
If there is to be a massive shock, then he strikes me as the
one most likely to provide it.
4:10 Billaway is the
obvious start point in this.
He has finished runner up in the last 2
runnings of the race, having been sent off favourite on both occasions.
He
was well beaten by It comes to Pass, in 2020 - but only lost out by a short head
12 months ago.
He is clearly the one to beat - but equally, I suspect he is
beatable…
In fact, Bob and Co may well have beaten him last year, if he’d
not decanted his jockey at the third last.
He narrowly gained his revenge at
the Punchestown festival, the following month - and there can be little doubt
that he will have been trained to the minute by Paul Nicholls, in an attempt to
give David Maxwell a festival winner.
He looks sure to go very close…
Winged Leader looks a big danger to the pair of them.
He’s won his last
5 starts - and comfortably accounted for Billaway on his most recent outing at
Thurles.
It’s quite possible that Billaway needed the run that day - but
Winged Leader is only 8, so has plenty of scope for improvement.
Dubai Quest
is the potential joker in the pack.
He has won his last 7 races - 5 PTPs and
2 Hunter Chases.
This will be the first time he has tackled quality
opposition - but he may be up to the challenge.
Plenty of the others can be
given half chances, based on bits and pieces of form.
Cousin Pascal beat Bob
and Co at Haydock in February - though the runner up probably needed the run
that day.
Whilst Premier Magic beat Porlock Bay in a PTP over Christmas -
though it’s hard to assess the merit of the form; and Mighty Stowaway dead
heated with Winged Leader, back in November - tho he himself, only managed a
distant sixth in this race last year…
4:50Just 8 will go
to post for the mares chase - and it’s not the most inspiring of contests.
Elimay was narrowly beaten by Colreevy in the inaugural running last
year - and she must have every chance of going one better this time.
She has
won 2 of her 4 subsequent starts - tho the horses that beat her on the 2 other
occasions will both face her again tomorrow.
Zambella destroyed her at
Aintree in December - tho it very much looked as if Elimay didn’t run her race
that day (for whatever reason).
She was much better on her next outing at
Fairyhouse on New Years day, but couldn’t quite peg back Mount Ida.
That
race suggests that Mount Ida is the one to beat tomorrow - though she’ll need to
jump better than she did when she won the Kim Muir at the festival 12 months ago
!
Rarely will you see a festival winner put in such a shocking round of
jumping - and it says a huge amount for her ability, that she was able to win.
She was helped that day, by the fact she was running over 3m2f - and if she
jumps as poorly tomorrow over 6 furlongs less, she is unlikely to be able to
recover.
Concertista is the other big player in the race.
She hacked up
in the mares novice race at the 2020 festival - and was narrowly beaten in the
mares hurdle, last year.
She has only run twice over fences - and whilst she
has won on both occasions, her lack of experience is a worry.
That said, the
small field should mean that she has time and space over her fences - and there
can be no doubting her ability.
Drying ground is a concern for Zambella -
and in the circumstances, her stablemate Vienna Court may prove to be the best
of the home defence.
She was a really impressive winner over course and
distance on new years day - and whilst she disappointed last time, when beaten
by Pink Legend at Huntingdon, I would expect her to reverse the form, back at
Cheltenham.
5:30 The final race of the 2022 festival -
and Langer Dan will be looking to gain compensation for his defeat in last years
race.
He was very unlucky to bump into Galopin des Champs - who ran that day
off a mark of 142 !
Unsurprisingly, Langer Dan couldn’t handle him - but he
was beaten little more than 2 lengths - with the third horse 9 lengths further
back.
He’s only run once since then, when making an eye catching
reappearance at Taunton.
That race was clearly designed to blow away the
cobwebs, so it was amazing to see him dropped 3lb for it !
As a consequence,
he will run tomorrow off a mark just 2lb higher than last year - and unless
there is another Galopin des Champs in the race, that should make him very hard
to beat.
Most of the obvious dangers, are unexposed novices, trained in
Ireland.
Adamantly Chosen represents Willie Mullin.
He won the Land
Rover bumper at last years Punchestown festival - and has taken well to
hurdling, twice finishing second - before winning his maiden at Thurles on his
most recent start. He could be anything.
Hollow Games is a little easier to
assess - and his last time out third in a grade 1 at the DRF (when he was sent
off fav), suggests he should be competitive off an opening mark of 143.
Freedom to Dream and Grand Jury finished behind him that day - and the
former is quite interesting at a big price, over the shorter trip and on 8lb
better terms.
Chemical Energy is yet another interesting Irish novice - he
ran in last years Champion bumper (but was well beaten).
Cobblers Dream is
the final one worthy of a mention.
He hacked up in the Lanzarote on his most
recent start - and an 8lb rise isn’t that harsh.
He probably doesn’t have
the scope of some of the Irish novices - but I would expect him to run well.
