Mar 15th - Preview for Cheltenham (Day 1)

Looking at the fields for the opening day of the Cheltenham festival, it’s hard not to be struck by how much things have changed…

A maximum of 12 runners will go to post for each of the 5 conditions races - an unthinkable situation a decade ago.

I’m not sure exactly why the fields are so much smaller.
Maybe it’s the cost of entering in the races; maybe there just aren’t the horses any more; or maybe it’s the fact that the best horses are now with just a handful of trainers and everyone else knows there is little point taking them on !

Whatever the reason, the bottom line is smaller fields - a less thrilling spectacle - and fewer betting opportunities !
And to think, there is pressure for a fifth day (and it’ll happen)

Anyway, it is what it is.
I’ve no doubt we will see some great horses - and there will still be some great races.
I may even find a few great bets (stranger things happen !)

In terms of the ground, then I expect the meeting to open with the going on the soft side.
I believe that some watering took place on Saturday - and there was also some rain !
Whatever, it won’t be quick.

Here are my early thoughts on the opening days races…


Cheltenham

1:30

What this race lacks in numbers, it more than makes up for in quality.
There may only be 9 runners, but 4 or 5 of them have the potential to be top class.

Constitution Hill heads the market - and I’ve no issue with that.
He’s unbeaten in 2 hurdles starts - and whilst it can be argued that’s he’s not beaten much (despite winning a grade 1 !), the manner of his victories has suggested that he is an exceptional talent.
A 14 length defeat of Might I was followed by a similar margin win over Jetiole - and whilst the form of neither victory is outstanding, the times were both very good.
Connections seem suitably bullish - and he looks the most likely race winner.
It should help his cause that his main market rival, Dysart Dynamo, is a head strong front runner, who is likely to give him a nice tow into the race.
He has also won his 2 hurdle races - and been very impressive on each occasion.
However, his style of running will make him vulnerable at the highest level (when it will be much harder from him to simply grind his rivals into the ground).
Jonbon is the third of the big guns - and he too is unbeaten over hurdles (in 3 starts).
He was really impressive on his penultimate start at Ascot - but a little less so, last time at Haydock.
In truth, he is hard to crab - he just doesn’t seem quite as talented at stablemate Constitution Hill.
Kilcruit should arguably have won the bumper at last seasons festival - but he gave Sir Gerhard too much rope and couldn’t reel him in.
He subsequently reversed the form at Punchestown - making him arguably the top bumper horse of last season.
However, things haven’t gone as well over hurdles, this campaign.
He was beaten at odds of 1/14 on his debut at Cork- and then again, at 4/9 at Leopardstown over Christmas.
He did finally get off the mark last time at Punchestown, but he is going to have to significantly improve on that, if he is to feature in the finish of this race.
If the race isn’t won by Mullins or Henderson (they are responsible for the 4 already mentioned), then it’s most likely to be taken by the Gordon Elliot trained Mighty Potter.
He won a grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas - and in a normal year, that form would see him vying for favouritism in this race.
However, he’s been slightly over-looked in the market, up against some potentially exceptional talents.
I would expect him to run his race - and I could certainly see him getting placed (even if winning proves to be slightly beyond him).
All 4 of the other runners are interesting - but the bar is set very high and it’ll be a bit of a surprise if any of them manage to play a major part in the finish.

2:10

11 will go to post for the Arkle - and there is no standout candidate…

Edwardstone heads the market, on the back of 4 successive wins in novice chases.
It’s very hard to knock what he’s achieved - tho there is a question mark over the suitability of Cheltenham - and he’s yet to beat an Irish horse !
He’s undoubtedly the best of the English - but nowadays, that doesn’t necessarily mean much !
The next 7 in the betting are all Irish trained - and it’s not easy to pick between them.
4 of them met last time out, in the Irish Arkle at the Dublin Racing festival.
Blue Lord came out on top that day, after taking advantage of a last fence blunder by Riviere D’etel.
Saint Sam was 4 lengths back in third - whilst Haut en Coleurs fell at the third fence.
It’s easy enough to construct an argument for why all 3 beaten horses might reverse the form: Riviere D’etel may well have won, if she had jumped the final fence cleanly; Saint Sam almost certainly went off too fast - and was staying on strongly at the end; whilst Haut en Coleur was notably well backed, up against stablemate Blue Lord.
To an extent, you pay your money and make your choice.
For What it’s worth, I like Riviere D’etel best - but more on the strength of her previous second to Ferney Hollow (who would be short priced fav, if he was running in this race).
Coueur Sublime was 14 lengths behind Riviere D’etel that day - and whilst he’s a horse I really like, it’s hard to find a good reason why he should reverse that form…
Of those at bigger prices, then War Lord interests me most…
He is well held by Edwardstone, on their run in the Henry VIII at Sandown.
However, I suspect he will be better suited to Cheltenham, than the favourite.
Whilst he may struggle to reverse the form, I would certainly expect him to at least narrow the gap…

2:50

The declaration of Frodon for the Ultima, means that 6 horses will be forced to carry more weight than the handicapper thinks they deserve…
That’s obviously not great for them - though in theory, it should make the race a little easier to solve !

So far as Frodon is concerned, then admirable horse though he is, I’ll be surprised if he can defy a rating of 164, and give upwards of 9lb to a host of younger, progressive rivals…
That said, the early favourite for the race, is Death Duty - and he’s a year older than Frodon !
He was once considered potentially top class by Gordon Elliot - but had spent a lot of time in the wilderness, prior to his last time out win in the Grand National trial at Punchestown.
Back to form, his current rating of 144 look attractive - though whether he will be as well suited by 3 furlongs less, on quicker ground, is a different matter…
Does he Know is a young, progressive horse - and he did well to win the grade 2 Reynoldstown chase on his most recent start, after a 3 month break.
I would expect him to improve for that run - but the 5lb rating rise he received for winning, was far from ideal.
Floueur provides Gordon Elliot with a second string to his bow.
He ran well when third to Death Duty at Punchestown, and unlike the winner, should be suited to the shorter distance of the Ultima.
That said, as he was beaten 7 lengths that day and is no better off at the weights. He will have his work cut out to reverse the form.
Fantastikas has some good form in novice chases and looks fairly rated on a mark of 144: whilst Corach Rambler is another who looks fairly rated.
He won over the course and distance in December - and was sent off fav to beat Does he Know in the Reynoldstown chase.
He still had a chance when falling 5 out in that race - and is now 9lb better off with the winner…
If he weren’t 5lb out of the weights, I could be quite keen on Gericault Roque.
He is yet to win a race over fences - but has finished runner up on his 3 most recent starts, all in good races.
The trouble is, his mark has gone up from 123 to 138 (effectively). That said, he is a young, improving horse, so he may well be competitive off his current rating.
Grumpy Charlie interests me most of those at big prices.
He was a good winner at Newbury in December - and again ran well at the same course last month, when third to Bravemansgame.
He’s still only 7, so has plenty of scope for improvement - and he will appreciate any cut in the ground.

3:30

Honeysuckle will be looking to defend the crown she won 12 months ago - and it’s hard to think she won’t be successful…

It’s a bizarre situation, whereby she is officially rated the best horse in the race by upwards of 3lb - and yet receives 7lb from all of her rivals, bar one.
If official ratings are anything to go by - she’s already home and hosed !
She is certainly an exceptional mare: unbeaten in 14 runs under rules - and greatly improved over the past 12 months.
In truth, she didn’t look at her brilliant best last time, in the Irish champion hurdle - but the fact she was still over 6 lengths too good for all of her rivals, speaks volumes for her superiority.
The reality is, she could perform a good few pounds below her optimum - and would still be the most likely race winner.
That said, she does face a few interesting rivals - and there is a chance that at least one of them could improve enough to test her.
Appreciate It won last years Supreme novice by 24 lengths - though he hasn’t been seen since.
However, the fact that he is trained by Willie Mullins, tempers concerns - as if anyone can get him back at his best after 12 months off, then Willie can !
Teahupoo is another potential improver.
He’s only 5 - but has won 6 of his 7 starts over hurdles and was particularly impressive last time, when beating Durasso at Gowran Park.
He will need to find another 7lb to challenge a peak form Honeysuckle - but that’s not impossible.
Zanahiyr and Adagio are the two other 5 years olds in the race - and whilst it’s an age group I’m generally against (due to maturity), they both have scope for improvement.
Adagio in particular, has strong course form and could easily run into a place.
Epatante won the 2020 Champion hurdle - but was put in her place by Honeysuckle last year and generally hasn’t looked as good as she used to.
It’s hard to make a case for any of the others winning - tho not impossible that one of them could run into the frame (due mainly to the fact that the main challengers to Honeysuckle, all come with question marks over them).

4:10

Telmesomethinggirl was a really impressive winner of the mares novice hurdle at last years festival - but it’s still a little surprising to see her installed a relatively short priced favourite for this.
On official ratings, she is only the sixth best horse in the race - and she has been beaten on all of her 3 subsequent starts.
Clearly there is an expectation that she saves her best for Cheltenham !
I suspect that is the case - and I haven’t got a major issue with her heading the market - though I do think her price is tight…
There has been a lot of support in recent weeks, for Queen Brook.
She was a very good bumper horse - but hasn’t reached the same level over hurdles.
However, she has only had 6 tries - and her last time out second to Burning Victory was probably a personal best over timber.
On 3lb better terms, she has a good chance of reversing the form with the winner - though whether that will be good enough to get her home in front, is a different matter.
The Willie Mullins trained Stormy Island and Echoes in Rain, are the 2 highest rated mares in the race - though that could be in part down to the way they’ve been campaigned (both have contested graded races).
Both won grade 1 races at last seasons Punchestown festival - and there were great expectations this season, for Echoes in Rain, in particular.
However, she has disappointed in 3 runs - though her last time out third in the Irish Champion hurdle, was definitely a step back in the right direction.
Heaven Help Us was a shock winner of last seasons Coral Cup - and whilst she’s not performed at that level in 5 subsequent runs, she’s not run too badly either.
She certainly has a chance of at least placing.
Mrs Milner won last years Pertemps final - but I can’t see her being suited by a drop in trip.
And whilst the trip should be no issue for Maries Rock, she is probably a few pounds shy of this level…
The same is likely to be true of Indefatigable - tho she finished fourth in the race 12 months ago and could be capable of achieving a similar placing, in what looks a slightly weaker renewal.

4:50

This would be a tough race to play in regardless - but the presence of Gaelic Warrior makes it nearly impossible.
He’s an ex French horse, who will be making his debut for Willie Mullins.
Rumour has it, that he was originally considered a Supreme horse for next year.
However, the UK handicapper has given him a mark of just 129 - which is 10lb below the mark that was expected.
As a result, there has clearly been a change of plan - and the decision has been made to try and exploit the rating.
I guess the thinking is, if he wins - great: if he doesn’t - he can still be a top novice next season !
Bearing in mind connections, it’s unlikely they are far off in their assessment - and if they are right, then he should prove very hard to beat.
If he wasn’t in the race, then there would still be a stand out candidate in the shape of the Gordon Elliot trained The Tide Turns.
He won on his stable debut at Punchestown - before finishing fourth behind Vauban in the grade 1 juvenile at Leopardstown over Christmas.
However, it was his most recent effort, when again fourth at Gowran, that really caught the eye.
He was given a very tender ride in the closing stages - and yet finished not far behind some high class older rivals.
If that run can be taken literally, he could easily give Gaelic Warrior something to think about.
Ignoring those 2 (!) - the race looks as open as ever…
On the book, HMS Seahorse has a fair chance of reversing Punchestown form with The Tide Turns, on 9lb better terms for a couple of lengths - even if it’s likely that the winner has subsequently improved.
Whilst Saint Segal arguably looks the best of the home defence, based on his second to Porticello in the grade 1 finale at Chepstow.
That said, Too Friendly wasn’t beaten as far by Porticello, when fourth to Knights Commander at Doncaster (though Porticello probably wasn’t at his best that day).
Bell ex One is the final one of major interest, on his debut for Paul Nicholls.
Previously trained in Ireland, he won 2 of his 3 starts - and if he has improved for the stable switch, then he should run well.

5:30

It’s quite shocking to see just 7 declared for the NH novice chase.
I’m old enough to remember when there were 20+ runners every year - most of them with a row of duck eggs next to their name - and trained by someone you’d never heard of !
How times change…
This year there will be just 2 British trained runners (Welsh trained, if you want to be specific) - which really beggars belief.
You have to wonder what the point of the race is - as it just seems to provide a race for the Willie Mullins & Gordon Elliot, which aren’t quite good enough to run in the old RSA (now the Browns Advisory).

Anyway..!
Run Wild Fred and Stattler are the main contenders for Mullins & Elliott - though both stables have back up, in the shape of Ontheropes and Braeside.
Of the main two, I would have a slight preference for Stattler.
He was sent off favourite for last years Albert Bartlett hurdle - but couldn’t get close to Vanillier.
He’s won 2 of his 3 chases this season - and stayed on well to take a grade 2 at Naas on his most recent start.
Run Wild Fred bolted up in the Troytown in November - and then finished runner up in the grade 1 novice at Leopardstown over Christmas.
He sets the race standard - though I suspect that Stattler may be able to improve past him…
It’s not impossible that Vanillier will improve past them both.
He was a hugely impressive winner at last years festival - but is taking his time to reach the same level over fences.
He was well behind Stattler last time - and behind Run Wild Fred, on his previous outing - but a return to Cheltenham may well see him bounce back to his best.
It’s quite hard to make a case for either Braeside or Ontheropes - both definitely look stable second strings.
As a consequence, if there is to be a ‘shock’ it’s likely to be provided by Pats Fancy.
He twice won well at Chepstow, before finishing a creditable runner up to Bravemansgame.
That’s decent form - and would give him a fair chance in a normal year. However, Run Wild Fred and Stattler have form at a different level - so he will need to show major improvement, if he is to trouble them.

Bets/Staking rationale

Best bets

Sandown

2:25
Current Mood 0.5pt win 10/1 (with patience, you should be able to get 12/1)

Matrix bets

Sandown

1:50
Dubrovnik Harry 1 unit win CEP 11 FP 11
King of the West 1 unit win CEP 16 FP 15

2:25
Lucky One 2 units win CEP 9 FP 9

3:00
Hidden Beauty 1 unit win CEP 12.5 FP 11
Flirtatious Girl 1 unit win CEP 15 FP 13

3:35
Killer Kane 1 unit win CEP 6.6 FP 6

4:10
Ofalltheginjoints  3 units win CEP 4.3 FP 5

4:45
Deyrann de Carjac 1 unit win CEP 6.4 FP 6

7mm of rain have fallen at Sandown in the last 24 hours and as a result, the ground has softened a fair bit.

It’s not a negative for my main fancies - but it has resulted in a few NRs - and shortening prices for the horses who prefer give under foot.

It was always going to be tricky to find good bets today - the races just aren’t there.
I was hopeful that I’d picked out a couple of decent ones - but the price has gone on one of them, so as a consequence there is now just one Best bet.

In truth, the price has also gone a bit on that one - due to Pricewise tipping it last night.
Certainly, I think 10/1 is a minimum - and I would expect a drift, prior to the off…

Anyway, here’s the thinking behind the bets that I’ve issued - both the Best bet and the Matrix bets…

Sandown

It’s hard to rule anything out of the 1:50 with confidence - which makes it a tough race to play in.
Knappers Hill looks the one to beat - though the rain won’t help his chance; whilst Thunder Rock is the solid option - but he looks beatable…
Dubrovnik Harry and Kingofthewest are totally unexposed and could be capable of significant improvement.
Both have already shown decent form - but may easily step up on that today and are worth supporting for the Matrix.
There are quite a few of interest at big prices, who could be capable of causing a shock, headed by Arizona Cardinal and Georges Saint.
But there is just too much guesswork involved to get heavily involved in the race.

Despite the big field, I’m quite keen on Current Mood in the Imperial Cup (2:25).
A rating of 127 looks to significantly under-estimate her - and connections seem to have finally worked out that a stiff 2 miles is her optimum trip.
Softening ground won’t be an issue - and I’ll be disappointed if she doesn’t run a very big race.
It’s not helped her price, that Pricewise tipped her last night. I suspect that 12/1 is a ‘fair’ price - and with patience you should be able to achieve that.
Lucky One is potentially a big danger - and is definitely worth a saver.
He appears to have been targeted at the race by Dan Skelton.
Plenty of others can be given half chances - but I’m happy with the pair of them against the field.

The betting suggests that the 3:00 is between Mullenbeg and Luccia and it may be right.
However, they are both now too short, and there’s almost an obligation to take them on…
Hidden Beauty and Flirtatious Girl finished well behind Mullenbeg last time - but both had legitimate excuses.
In truth, I can’t be confident that either will be able to reverse the form - but at the available odds, it’s worth a small risk for the Matrix, that they will.

The 3:35 looks a particularly hard race to call - with the pace of the race likely to be key.
If Danny Kirwan can get into a rhythm at the head of affairs, he will be hard to pass - but that appears unlikely.
My feeling is that the race will be set up for a closer - and whilst Dorking Lad is the obvious one, he was very harshly treated by the handicapper, for his recent Huntingdon win.
Killer Kane wasn’t treated as badly for his Kempton victory and at 5/1+, he’s worth a small risk for the Matrix.

I was hoping to make Ofalltheginjoints a Best bet in the 4:10 - but the price has gone.
He opened at 11/2 last night - but you’ll struggle to get 10/3 now.
Needless to say, I think the current price is much nearer the mark - but the margin in it is limited.
It’s a tight little race - and whilst he is undeniably well handicapped, the softening ground and undulating track may not be ideal.
I’ll cover him for the Matrix with a target price of 4/1.
If I’d been able to secure that at 10:00, he would have been a Best bet.

As I mentioned in the preview, I’m struggling to get fully behind Deyrann de Carjac in the 4:45 - though I’m not prepared to oppose him !
He should be capable of bolting up - but his fall last time and softening ground, temper enthusiasm.
My feeling is that connections will be happy with him jumping round without incident - and a couple more pounds off his mark.
He’ll then be something to bet on, in the series final at Haydock, on decent ground.
Just in case I’m wrong, I’ll have a minimum stake on him for the Matrix.

Review of the weekend (Mar 12th)

 The final Saturday before Cheltenham, saw just one meeting of interest - at Sandown.

However, it was tough to find bets - with a couple of big field handicaps supplemented by 3 small field handicaps and a bumper.

There had been some overnight rain - but I didn’t expect it to have made much difference to the state of the ground.
However, I read that wrongly and the going rode much softer than I anticipated.


Not that soft ground should have been an issue for the only Best bet of the day…

I was quite keen on Current Mood - and felt that softer ground would be in her favour.
Her inexperience was slight concern, in such a competitive contest - but I thought that would be offset to an extent, by her racing prominently (which she had done in all of her recent races).

However, for reasons I could only guess at, Isabel Williams chose to hold her up, almost in last place - and she barely moved out of that position.

It was a baffling ride - and a baffling performance.

There have been a few lately and I’ve been at a loss to explain any of them.
Current Mood was strong in the betting - and it was a valuable prize.
There was literally no reason why she wouldn’t be ridden to try and win - but that seemed to be the case.

In addition to her, I saved on Lucky One for the Matrix - and he ran much better.

In fact, turning in, he appeared to have every chance - but couldn’t find anything up the home straight.

The race was won in speculator style, by Irish raider, Surprise Package.
He was a hard one to fancy on recent form - but absolutely bolted up.

Seeing him win so easily, made me (and plenty of others, no doubt !) wonder how things are going to work out at Cheltenham this week.
Based on this run, the Irish horses look to be streets ahead of the British ones…

The other bets on the day were all for the Matrix - and they had a mixed afternoon.

I suggested Dubrovnik Harry and Kingofthewest for the EBF final - and they both ran fair races.
Dubrovnik Harry managed to grab third place behind Complete Unknown, who was another that was hard to find in the form book.
In the bumper, I sided with Hidden Beauty and Flirtatious Girl against 2 very strong markets leaders.
However, neither put up much of a show - as second favourite Luccia, come home unchallenged.
The one bright note on the afternoon, was provided by Killer Kane in the novice handicap chase.
I thought that the race might be run to suit him - and that’s exactly how it panned out.
He took up the running after the second last - and despite veering all over the place on the run in, was far enough ahead of the runner up, for the stewards to decide that it didn’t affect the result.
3 non runners completely messed up the following handicap chase - turning it into a race that I wish I’d swerved.
Neither the softening ground or having to make the running, would have helped Ofalltheginjoints.
He led to the third last - but then fell in a hole and was pulled up.
Deyrann de Carjac was another who wouldn’t have been helped by the very soft ground.
He needs it quick and I suspect the only reason he wasn’t withdrawn, was because Alan King wanted to get him qualified for the series final.
In the circumstances, he ran well to finish third - and will very much be one to look out for at Haydock in May - assuming he gets decent ground.

So that was that - until Tuesday..!

TVB. 

Mar 12th - Preview for Sandown

 With the Cheltenham festival getting under-way on Tuesday, this weekend was always likely to be a quiet one - and it is !

There’s a fair meeting at Sandown tomorrow - where the £100K Imperial Cup is the feature- but there is little else of interest.

In truth, that’s probably a good thing.

Next week is going to be exceptionally busy for me - so the more I can get ahead with form study etc., the better.

As a consequence, the preview for tomorrow is relatively light.
There are just 4 races on ITV - but I’ve also offered thoughts on the final 2 races on the card.

Here are my early thoughts…


Sandown

1:50

This race is invariably a great source of novice chasers for next season - so it should pay to watch it closely.
However, figuring out what’s going to win tomorrow, isn’t easy…

Top weight, Knappers Hill, is the obvious place to start.
He was a top class bumper horse last season - and was expected to take high rank amongst this seasons novice hurdlers - but that’s not quite how it’s worked out.
In fairness, he did manage to win his first 2 races this season - but then was firmly put in his place by Jonbon at Ascot.
In truth, there was little shame in that - and his subsequence sixth in the Betfair hurdle, was a good effort for an inexperienced horse.
He should appreciate the step up in trip tomorrow - and it’s not hard to think that he’s a fair bit better than his current mark of 135.
Thunder Rock is a very progressive horse, who comes into this on the back of a hat-trick of wins.
His defeat of Cobblers Dream at Wetherby in November, looks particularly good in light of the runner ups subsequent win in the Lanzarote hurdle.
Whilst he was impressive on his most recent start, at Huntingdon.
His form has a really solid look to it, and I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t run well.
Our Jet represents the Skeltons and is stepping into handicap company for the first time.
He was beaten less than a length by Hillcrest at Aintree in November - and if that form can be taken literally, he is a certainty off a mark of 122 !
However, the winner has improved markedly since then - though the form of Our Jets subsequent runs, still gives him a fair chance - and he has scope for improvement.
Dubrovnik Harry is a hard one to assess, after just 3 life-time runs.
He disappointed a little at Leicester on his most recent start, but prior to that had hacked up at Exeter.
Again, he has huge scope for improvement…
Kingofthewest and Jerrash, are 2 other lightly raced sorts, who could be capable of much better than they have shown so far.
The former in particular, looks to be going in the right direction.
There are also a few of interest, at bigger prices…
Arizona Cardinal holds Our Jet, based on Warwick form in December.
He has disappointed in 2 subsequent races - but ran much better last time, when winning a novice hurdle (again at Warwick).
Whilst Marble Sands has form tied in with both Kingofthewest and Knappers Hill, which gives him a fair chance, at tomorrows weights…

2:25

Balco Coastal is the obvious favourite for this: an unexposed novice from a big stable, stepping into handicap company for the first time.
On the back of finishing runner up in a grade 2 at Cheltenham last time, a mark of 134 looks generous - and it’s not hard to see him running a big race.
However, tomorrows race will be very competitive - and his inexperience may count against him. Also, there are question marks over the form of the Nicky Henderson stable.
At around 7/2 in a 22 runner race, he is relatively easy to oppose…
Onemorefortheroad has solid handicap form, courtesy of his last time out second in the Betfair exchange trophy at Ascot.
He was only raised a pound for that run, which suggests he should still be competitive - though I do wonder about the strength of the form…
Hystery Beres last time out third to Cormier, looks stronger form - in light of the winners victory at Kelso last Saturday.
Second placed Severance, also franked the form by finishing fourth in the same race.
Lucky One could be interesting, dropped back in trip, off a rapidly falling mark.
He was rated 143 a year ago - and whilst that was probably too high, his current mark of 125, definitely looks exploitable.
It’s interesting that he has been held up in 3 runs this season - despite making the running in his races last season.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a change in tactics, tomorrow…
Samarrive was a hugely impressive winner over tomorrows course and distance in early December - but was then pulled up at Ascot a fortnight later.
Maybe he hadn’t fully recovered - or maybe an 11lb rise was too much for him to cope with.
We should learn more tomorrow…
Current Mood is interesting, as a novice making her handicap debut.
As always, it’s hard to judge whether an opening mark of 127 is fair - but her runs at Cheltenham, behind Blazing Khal and Gellino Bello, suggest it probably is.
The trip is also a question mark with her - particularly on good ground; whilst her run style (she races prominently) and inexperience, are also possible negatives.
On the flip side, she has plenty of potential and is a fair price.
As you would expect in a race of this nature, it’s not hard to find an interesting outsider…
Monviel and Lebowski, are a couple that catch my eye.
Both are completely unexposed, so very hard to assess.
Monviel has only run 3 times over hurdles, winning on his 2 most recent outings.
It’s impossible to know what the form is worth - but an opening mark of 121 looks workable and Philip Hobbs doesn’t tend to over-face his horses.
Lebowski has also only run over hurdles 3 times - winning the first 2, before getting pulled up in a grade 2 at Haydock on his most recent start.
His opening mark of 124 also makes him look interesting…

3:00 

It’s unusual to have a bumper as a feature race on a Saturday card - particularly one that is restricted to mares…

Flirtatious Girl won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and whilst she will have to carry a 4lb penalty tomorrow, based on that run, she should have every chance.
However, she has only been seen once since then - at Cheltenham, on trails day at the end of January - when she finished well behind Mullenbeg.
She was conceding 4lb to a race fit rival that day - but was beaten over 12 lengths.
Even at level weights tomorrow, it’s hard to make a case for her reversing the form.
In truth, Mullenbeg very much looks the one to beat.
She was hugely impressive that day, following up an equally impressive debut win at Ludlow.
She clearly has loads of ability - and her position at the head of the market tomorrow, is fully justified.
The Nicky Henderson trained Luccia has been installed second favourite on the back of a winning debut run at Warwick.
The form doesn’t amount to much - but because of her connections, the bookmakers were never going to take any chances (even with the stable possibly out of form).
Eabha Grace is a very interesting raider for Willie Mullins.
She won on her debut at Thurles in December, before running disappointingly in a grade 2 race at the Dublin Racing festival.
She’s impossible to assess - but the fact that Willie Mullins sends her over, means she has to be respected.
Hidden Beauty put up an amazing performance at Ffos Las on debut, before disappointing behind Mullenbeg at Cheltenham.
We should fine out tomorrow, which piece of form best reflects her ability.
Fairy Gem finished a distant runner up to Mullenbeg at Cheltenham - and whilst she really shouldn’t be able to reverse the form on just 4lb better terms, she should run well (and maybe place).

3:35

There may only be 6 runners in this, but it looks likely to be strongly run.
All 6 of the runners like to either lead or race prominently, so tactics may well prove crucial.

If he was guaranteed an uncontested lead, then I think Danny Kirwan would take a lot of beating.
He made all in a novice chase at Wincanton on his most recent start - and I suspect that he is the most talented horse in the field.
However, if he is taken on for the lead, then I’d be fearful that his jumping might let him down…
If that happens, then Killer Kane could be the one to take advantage.
He finally came good on his most recent start, when taking a novice handicap at Kempton.
He’s been raised 6lb for that win - but a new mark of 126 shouldn’t be beyond him.
Scene not Herd has been a revelation this season, winning all 3 of his chase starts.
His mark has risen by 22lbs as a consequence - but he’s a particularly sound jumper and that should stand him in good stead over the challenging Sandown fences.
Dorking Lad is another who is rapidly improving - whilst his hold up style could prove ideal, if the race pace is overly strong.
Venetias horses aren’t really firing at the moment - and that lessens the case of  Frenchy du Large.
On form, he could certainly be given a chance - even if his claims aren’t outstanding.
Whilst the issue with Flic ou Voyou is that Harry Cobden seems to have deserted him in order to ride Danny Kirwan.
That Said, Bryony has ridden the horse on his 2 most recent starts - so maybe it’s just a case of not changing jockeys unnecessarily.
Again, on form, he certainly has a chance - whilst the jockey booking is likely to see him sent off a bigger price than should be the case.

4:10

Whilst it’s not on ITV, this is still an interesting little handicap in which most of the runners can be given a chance.

The novice, Switch Hunter, has been installed the early favourite for this - but I suspect that’s because he’s a novice (so open to improvement) - and trained by Paul Nichols.
Certainly the form of his 3 chase runs isn’t anything spectacular, so it’s likely that he will need to show improved form if he is to win.
Fragrant Delitiep was quite impressive when scoring at Wincanton on his most recent start.
That was a very similar race to tomorrows - but it remains to be seen whether he will be able to repeat the dose off a 7lb higher mark.
Powerstone Park also won on his most recent start - when getting the better of Oscar Robertson at Hereford.
He will be looking to defy a 6lb higher mark tomorrow - but he could be up to the task.
Ofalltheginjoints finally bounced back to form last time, when runner up to Flegmatic at Kempton.
That was a good effort against an improving winner - and he must have every chance tomorrow, running off the same mark.
Musical Slave comes into tomorrows race off a dropping handicap mark.
He’s run well on a couple of occasions during the last 12 months - and if he is on a going day tomorrow, then he must have a chance.
Similarly, Larry must have every chance off a mark just 1lb higher than he won from at Ascot in October.
There were excuses for 2 subsequent defeats - though he was a little disappointing on his most recent start, behind Fortescue.
Notachance completes the line up - and whilst he should have a good chance off a mark 3lb lower than when winning last years classic chase, he’s shown literally nothing in 5 subsequent runs, and it would take an act of faith to support him tomorrow.

4:45

As I’m sure many of you will recall, I was particularly keen on Deyrann de Carjac when he ran at Kempton a fortnight ago (I made him a 1pt bet).
However, he made a mistake at the first fence - and then fell at the third…
In a similar race tomorrow, it could be argued that I should be just as strong on him - but I’m not feeling the same…
Maybe it’s a case of once bitten - but I wonder if connections will be happy for him simply to get round and place.
I could be wrong, as the application of cheek pieces does suggest intent - but I’m currently not viewing him as strongly as last time (though I guess that could change !).
In terms of his opponents, then Nocte Volatus is the obvious one.
He’s an improving front runner, who’s unbeaten in 3 completed chases.
The concern is, that he has got a mistake in him - and the Sandown fences tend to be unforgiving.
However, if he gets everything right, he’s likely to prove hard to beat.
Foxboro, Nickolson and Mahler’s Promise are all solid performers, who should run their races.
However, all 3 look beatable.
And whilst Defi Sacre and Maypole Class are both potentially well handicapped, neither has shown much form for quite some time, so they will need to bounce back tomorrow, if they are to be involved.

Review of the weekend (Mar 5th)

 With Cheltenham just over a week away - and the ‘big’ races all taking place on Saturday - I wasn’t expecting a busy weekend.

However, there were some decent races at the 3 main meetings - and finding bets was a bit easier than is often the case.

Despite the usual difficulties with issuing bets, I ended up with 3 Best bets on the day - plus a host for the Matrix (half of which were defending the Best bets).


Bun Doran was the first Best bet to run.

He’s in danger of becoming a ‘cliff’ horse - as I’ve suggested him at least 3 times this season (once before as a Best bet).

However, he continues to run well - whilst falling in the handicap - so I figure he is going to win one sooner or later !

My angle today, that in addition to the dropping mark - he would have ideal conditions - and possibly an uncontested lead.

Well, I might have got the conditions right - but he certainly didn’t get an uncontested lead !

Instead he had to sit in behind the very well backed Cheddleton - and the seasonal debutante, Maylstic.

And ultimately, I think that won him the race - as the pair of them got duelling a long way from home.
I did briefly think that Malystics jockey was going to bring down Bun Doran, when he was unseated at the cross fence - but Bun Doran swerved him and just lost a few lengths.

That still looked like it might prove costly, when The Big Bite (who I had covered in the Matrix) and King D’Argent went clear up the home straight.

However, Bun Doran kept jumping and galloping - and when his 2 rivals made a mistake at the last, he pounced.

For a horrible moment, it seemed that King D’Argent was going to battle back and snatch the spoils - but thankfully Bun Doran managed to find enough to hold him off and claim a much overdue win for the Best bets…

Voix de Reve was the next Best bet to run - but I felt his chance relied on him getting an uncontested lead - and that didn’t happen.

First Severence took him on - and then Metier passed them both - leaving Voix de Reve back in third.

To his credit, he kept on battling - and ran really well.
However, the 3 of them almost certainly did too much, too soon - and the race was set up for the closers…

They were header by Cormier and Saint D’oroux - both of whom I’d covered for the Matrix - and it was the former who stayed on best, for a good win.
Meanwhile, Voix de Reve could only plug on for a valiant fifth…

Gold des Bois was the final Best bet on the day - but he was another who’s chance was messed up by the way the race unfolded.

Early on, I was quite happy, as he had an uncontested lead.
However, around half way, Seemorelights pulled his way to the front - messing things up for Gold des Bois.

In truth, if he’d been good enough, he could have responded - but he wasn’t and he didn’t !

I’d also covered favourite, Hardy du Seuil for the Matrix - but he jumped very poorly and it says much for his ability that he was able to run on to snatch second place.

Gold Des Bois meanwhile, finished a very disappointing fifth…

It was a mixed day for the other Matrix bets:
Encounter a Giant ran OK in the Newbury opener - but looked as if the run would bring him on.
I wouldn’t be giving up on him just yet (with the handicapper likely to drop him 5lb).
In the following Greatwood Gold cup, the Matrix got a one:two, courtesy of Tamaroc de Mathan and Paint a Dream.
I had a slight preference for the former - but he was no match for the latter, who bolted in by 15 lengths !
Boreham Bill and Commanche Red were late additions to the Matrix in a none televised race - but I would have been better off leaving them out !
In fairness, both horses ran quite well - but they weren’t good enough to get involved at the business end.
Mister Malarky was good enough to get involved at the business end at Doncaster - despite looking unwilling for most of the race !
In truth, he should have won - but his attitude left a lot to be desired and Undesupervision outbattled him after the last.
Whilst at Kelso, speculative punts on Wilde about Oscar and N’golo produced little to get excited about.
I felt the market was foretelling the likely fate of the former - though he didn’t run too badly.
The latter however, never featured….

As so ended another Saturday - and for once, there was a profit for both the Best bets and the Matrix.

It just shows what can happen if I get a few decent races to tackle !

TVB.

Bets/Staking rationale

Best bets

Doncaster

2:55
Bun Doran 0.5pt win 5/1

Kelso

3:15
Voix de Reve 0.5pt win 14/1

3:43
Gold des Boid 0.5pt win 11/2

Matrix bets

Kelso 

2:05
Wilde about Oscar 1 unit win CEP 8 FP 7
N’golo 1 unit win CEP 11 FP 15

3:15
Saint D’oroux 1 unit win CEP 12.5 FP 11
Cormier 1 unit win CEP 8.8 FP 8

3:34
Hardy du Seuil 2 units win CEP 3 FP 3

Doncaster

2:55
The Big Bite 2 units win CEP 3.75 FP 3.5

3:30
Mister Malarky 1 unit win CEP 5.7 FP 6
Legends Gold 1 unit win CEP 10 FP 11

Newbury

1:15
Encounter a Giant 1 unit win CEP 20 FP 17

1:50
Tamaroc du Mathan 1 unit win CEP 5.8 FP 6
Paint the Dream 1 unit win CEP 11.5 FP 10

3:37
Boreham Bill 1 unit win CEP 16.5 FP 11
Commanche Red 1 unit win CEP 11 FP 9

I was really surprised when the final decs came through on Thursday and I saw the fields for todays televised races.
All 10 looked quite reasonable - and I was confident that I’d be able to find some decent bets.

I still felt that on Friday morning, having worked my way through the form - but then the rain came and the goal posts moved…

On top of the changing ground, there was a number of NRs - and suddenly I was looking at a very different situation.

The markets this morning reflected that - with a good deal of volatility.

They did eventually settle down - but many of the good bets from Friday morning, had gone.

As always, it wasn’t helped by the various high profile tipsters - who also latched on to a number of the horses I was interested in…

Such is life, I guess…

As a result, I’ve ended up with just the 3 Best bets on the day - plus a few for the Matrix.
Here’s the thinking behind them…


Kelso

I can’t see an angle into the 1:32 race.
North Lodge and Richmond Lake are the 2 obvious ones - but they head the market.
There are plenty of potential dangers at bigger prices - but it’s hard to pick out one in particular.
If the ground is very soft, then I could see Nells Son out running his odds and maybe placing - but officially speaking, it’s just a watching race.

I had originally ear-marked Wilde about Oscar as a Best bet in the 2:05 - but I’ve cooled on him…
He looked as if he might be Skelton plot - but if that’s the case, I would expect him to be well backed (and he’s weak in the market).
I’ll cover him for the Matrix - but more as an insurance, in case I’ve read the market wrongly.
I’ll also cover N’golo.
I expected him to be a bigger price than he currently is - but maybe he’ll drift near the off.
He’s shown promise in his 2 runs for his new connections - and may have been targeted at this race.

Espoir de Romay should win the 2:40 - but I couldn’t suggest backing him at 6/4.
He arguably deserves to be that price - but that’s more a reflection on the opposition (or lack of it).
There really is nothing to take him on with - so even if he runs 10lb below his official rating, he’s likely to win.
Windsor Avenue looks the biggest danger - but it’s a race I feel happiest just watching…

The market for 3:15 has been all over the place, as people try to figure out the effect of the rain.
Buveur D’air was a 4/1 shot on the opening show - but can now be backed at 10/1 !
I did think I’d found a really good bet in the shape of Voix de Reve - and he was easy to back at 20/1 all of yesterday.
Ironically, he’d prefer good ground, so I thought the rain would put people off him.
However, he has been well backed this morning - and 12/1 was the price when I could issue.
That’s tight - and I would except him to drift. However, I still think he’s the Best bet in the race.
I’ll back him up with Saint D’oroux and Cormier, for the Matrix.
The former is tied in closely with Voix de Reve, on recent form; whilst the latter could still be ahead of his mark (even if he too, would prefer decent ground).

I’m hoping that the 3:43 is between Hardy du Seuil and Gold des Bois.
Certainly, the pair of them have the best form in the race - and the others don’t appear to have massive scope for improvement.
Gold des Bois was an 8/1 shot yesterday evening - which made him a clear Best bet.
At 5/1 this morning, things are much tighter - but it’s still a lot better than the 2/1 about Hardy du Seuil !
I’ll cover him for the Matrix - just to get the stake back, if Gold des Bois doesn’t manage to deliver.


Doncaster

I was most interested in Holly Hartingo in the 2:20 race - but she’s a non runner.
Get a Tonic has now drifted to 9/4 - and she’s quite tempting at that price.
However, there are doubts about her over the trip, in bad ground, so she can’t really be backed.
There are also a number of potential dangers lurking at big prices - which makes this a race that I’m happy to just watch.

I was concerned that 3 non runners would completely mess up the 2:55 race.
However, they were all relative outsiders - and one of them was a possible pace rival to Bun Doran.
As a consequence, their absence is arguably a positive thing - even if it has resulted in a 25% drop in the price of Bun Doran.
I am hopeful that he will be able to make all, in conditions that should suit him well.
5/1 (or thereabouts) is a fair price.
I felt that The Big Bite was far and away the biggest danger - and worth saving stakes for the Matrix.
However, the support for Cheddleton is quite concerning.
He is not particularly well handicapped - but he is a class horse and maybe soft ground will swing things in his favour.
It’ll be interesting to see how the market moves, close to the off…

I would have considered Mister Malarky as a best bet in the 3:30 - but I would have wanted a fair bit bigger than 9/2…
I guess he may drift a few points, close to the off - so I’ll cover him for the Matrix.
I’ll also cover Legends Gold.
Again, I was hoping for a bigger price - but Pricewise tipped her last night, which meant that wasn’t going to be the case this morning.
I think the pair of them have good chances, in a race where there is likely to be a lot of pace (so it could pay to be held up).


Newbury

I like Kauto Riko best in the 1:15 - but he’s not a horse you could ever back at 2/1 !
He has the talent to easily win this race off his current mark - but an attitude that means he’s far form guaranteed to run to his best.
As a result, I’d rather take a risk on Encounter a Giant.
There’s a lot of guesswork with him - but he retains potential (which is unusual for a veteran !).
He could easily pull up, so could never be a Best bet - but he’s worth a small risk for the Matrix.

Tamaroc du Mathan strikes me as the most likely winner of the 1:50 - provided the ground isn’t desperate.
I’d be pretty sure that he’s the best handicapped horse in the field - it’s just a question of whether he will be able to show it.
The other ones of interest, are all at the top of the market - but Paint the Dream looks a little over-priced at around 10/1.
He doesn’t have much scope off his current mark - but conditions should be fine for him and I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t run well.
The pair of them are worth covering for the Matrix.

A bonus race ! - the 3:37…
Prompted by Gags (who posted in the forum), I had a look at the race - and agreed with him that Commanche Red looks interesting at a double figure price.
I also like the look of Boreham Bill, who is potentially very well handicapped - and is an even bigger price than Commanche Red !
Certainly, I feel that both represent ‘value’ - and are worth covering to minimum stakes, for the Matrix.

Mar 5th - Preview for Kelso, Doncaster & Newbury

 There’s plenty of rain around again - and figuring out how the ground will be riding at tomorrows 3 meetings, isn’t going to be easy.

My expectation is that all 3 will be roughly ‘soft’ - but if there is more rain than expected, it could end up ‘heavy’; whilst less rain, and ‘good to soft’ is a possibility.

Not ideal…

On the plus side, there are some really good races - and in general, the fields have held up far better than has been the case on most the weekends this season.
I should certainly be able to find some bets (provided some one else doesn’t beat me to the punch !).

Here are my early thoughts on all of the televised races…


Kelso

1:32

North Lodge and Richmond Lake head the market for this - and that’s understandable.
The pair clashed at Aintree in December, and North Lodge came out on top, by just over a length.
However, Richmond Lake is 6lb better off tomorrow, which should be sufficient to turn the tables.
That said, North Lodge was making his hurdling debut that day - and has subsequently put up an improve effort, to win a grade 2 at Cheltenham.
In fairness, Richmond Lake also probably improved when running Jonbon to 3 lengths at Haydock last time.
In short, you pay your money and make your choice.
My choice would probably be North Lodge - but I don’t expect there to be much between the pair.
All this said, it is far form a 2 horse race…
Sholokjack and Bold Endeavour both boast unbeaten records - and it’s hard to know how good they are.
It’s certainly interesting that Harry Skelton is riding at Kelso, when brother Dan is running some good horses at both Newbury and Doncaster.
I can’t be sure that Sholojack is the reason - but he might be !
Even beyond the 4 mentioned, there are a few interesting looking ones.
Nells Son was behind Richmond Lake at Haydock - but should benefit form todays longer trip; whilst Datsalrightgeno won well at Cheltenham in December, before disappointing last time at Sandown, on dreadful ground.
Honneur D’Ajonc is another one who can’t be discounted, in what looks a very competitive race of its type.

2:05

It’s no surprise to see Famous Bridge heading the market for this.
He’s an unexposed novice, who was sent off at 1/2 on his handicap debut last time, and had just taken up the running when unseating his jockey at the second last hurdle.
However, he had come under pressure - and it wasn’t guaranteed that he would have won that race.
We should find out more about him, tomorrow…
In truth, there is plenty that you can take him on with (if you so wish !)
Hart of Steel is the obvious one, in his hattrick bid.
He’s won his last 2 races at Bangor and Uttoxeter - but he’s edging up the handicap and this looks tougher.
By contrast, Wilde About Oscar is dropping down the weights.
He won well at Uttoxeter last spring, off a mark of 146 - but will be running off a mark of 141 tomorrow.
That’s because he’s disappointed on his 4 subsequent races - tho in fairness, he had a lot on in most of them.
He showed more last time at Huntingdon, when returning from a wind op - and if he’s strong in the betting tomorrow, I suspect he will be hard to beat.
Kaizer bounced back to form last time, when romping home over the course.
He’s been raised 9lb for that win - but more pertinently will be taking on stronger opposition over a shorter trip.
One Night in Milan also drops back in trip after some eye catching runs over 3 miles.
There is no doubt that he is now a well handicapped horse - the question is whether he will have the pace to cope with 2m5f (soft ground would help his cause).
N’golo is the final one of interest.
He’s very hard to get a handle on, but has shown definite promise on his 2 starts for Ann Duffield.
He’s dropped to as mark from which he could be very competitive - provided he puts his best foot forward…

2:40

Based on official ratings, Espoir de Romay is very much the one to beat in this.
He has an official mark of 160 - and that’s at least 9lb higher than all of his rivals (some of whom will be giving him weight).
However, it’s debatable whether he deserves such a lofty mark, as it is based on a single run at Aintree last spring, when he fell at the second last.
He’s only run once this season - and he ran to a mark at least 10lb lower that day - so there are definitely question marks over the mark.
He also hasn’t been seen for 3 months - and is unproven over 3 miles in soft ground (though I doubt that will be an issue).
In short, there are sufficient question marks to temper the appeal of odds of around 2/1.
That said, the opposition looks limited…
On official ratings, Itchy Feet is the next best horse in the race - and he does deserve his mark of 151.
However, he’s a horse who prefers not to win - so a lot will come down to how he reacts to first time blinkers.
If they have the desired effect - and provided he copes with the trip in the ground - then he should be hard to beat.
Windsor Avenue is probably the most solid option in the race, following his all the way win in the Sky bet chase.
The application of blinkers transformed him that day - and it remains to be seen, whether they will be as effective second time…
It’s hard to see Big River being quick enough, over this distance, up against strong opposition; whilst there has to be a question mark over the stamina of Nuts Well, upped in trip, on soft ground.
Dingo Dollar is likely to struggle if the ground gets too soft: whilst Hill Sixteen just doesn’t look god enough !
In short, a race which everything looks beatable :)

3:15

Not only is there £100K up for grabs in this (the same as the County hurdle at Cheltenham) - there is also the possibility of £100K bonus for any horse that wins this race and also wins at Cheltenham
No wonder it’s drawn a strong field…

Dual champion hurdler Buveur D’air heads the weights on his comeback from nearly a year off the course.
He was last seen when finishing fourth to Abacadabras at Aintree - and on that run, would have every chance off a mark of 152.
In fact, his current rating is 20lb lower than he was rated at his peak - tho that’s because he is now 11 and in decline.
The tricky bit is figuring out which is declining fastest - his mark, or his ability !
Metier sits above him in the betting, following his convincing win at the Lingfield Million meeting in January.
He bounced right back to form that day and easily took a valuable handicap.
However, it was a relatively weak race - and the heavy ground really suited him.
On likely quicker ground tomorrow, up against stronger opposition - and from a 7lb higher mark, the task won’t be as easy…
It’s interesting that Jessie Harrington has chosen to send over Autumn Evening - though he looks harshly handicapped, 7lb higher than his Irish mark (which itself, looked high enough).
Cormier looks a very solid option, off a mark just 4lb higher than the one he won off at Cheltenham in January.
It’s hard to see him not running a big race, with very soft ground, the only thing that might be an issue.
Very soft ground also wouldn’t be ideal for Voix de Reve.
However, he is becoming a well handicapped horse - and he ran a big race last time, when third to Saint D’oroux, over the course. A 4lb pull in the weights might be sufficient to enable him to reverse the form - though things are confused a little by the booking of claiming jockeys for both horses…
 
3:43

Despite top weight, Hardy de Seuil looks the right favourite in this…
He’s won 2 of his 5 chases this season - and failed to complete in 2 others (a fall and an unseat).
However, he probably put up his best performance last time, when runner up to Minella Drama at Haydock.
The winner is a very decent horse - as are the two who finished third and fourth.
In short, it is a solid piece of form and very much makes Hardy de Seuil the one to beat.
It’s reasonable to expect that Dubai Days will be primed to run a big race.
On form, the case for him isn’t compelling - but the race is named in honour of the trianers father, so it’s a fair assumption that Duba Days will be at its peak.
Heartbreak kid did well to beat Le Ligerein at Uttoxeter - but a 6lb rating rise will make things tougher for him tomorrow.
Whilst both Dino Velvet and Gold des Bois have both developed nasty cases of ‘seconditis’…
The former has filled that spot 4 times in his last 5 runs; and whilst the latter can ‘only’ boast 4 seconds from his last 6 runs - it would probably have been 5 from 6 if he’d not fallen at the second last, when in second place at Doncaster.
That said, his second to Nuts Well over course and distance in October, is good form; as is his last time out fourth to Funambule Sivola at Doncaster.

Doncaster

2:20 

Based on official ratings, Get a Tonic is very much the one to beat in this…
She is rated at least 9lb superior to all of her rivals - and her last time out second to Maries Rock, is strong form (in the context of this race).
She’s improved with each run - tho it remains to be seen how she will cope with a step up in trip, on the likely soft ground.
If she does handle it, then she sets the standard…
That said, she faces a number of unexposed rivals, who despite being rated inferior to her, are open to significant improvement.
Chief amongst them, is Holly Hartingo.
She is unbeaten in two runs over hurdles - and has shown a good attitude on both occasions.
She had Miss Fairfax back in third, when making a winning debut at Ludlow.
Miss Fairfax has subsequently improved to win her 2 most recent starts, seemingly benefiting from a step up in trip.
However, it’s quite possible that Holly Hartingo will also benefit from racing over further tomorrow and I would expect her to confirm the form.
Gazette Bourgeoise and So Said I are both stepping out of handicap company, after recent wins.
The pair clashed twice, earlier in the season, at Stratford and Exeter.
Gazette Bourgoise, came out on top at Stratford; but So Said I reversed the form at Exeter.
However, that was likely helped by Gazette Bourgoise having to concede 7lb - and on level terms tomorrow, Gazette Bourgeois should come out on top.
It’s hard to make much of a case for the outsiders, tho Eureka Creek has form with Miss Fairfax and Get a Tonic, which suggest she should run well.

2:55

There are some potentially well handicapped horses in this - though softening ground might prove to be a leveller…

The Big Bite is the early favourite, following his last time out second to Funambule Sivola, over course and distance.
That was a good effort - and approaching the last, it briefly looked as if he might win that race.
The handicapper has seen fit not to raise him for that - and there can be little doubt he can win off his current mark, if things drop right.
King D’Argent can also win off his current mark - in the right situation.
He hacked up at Warwick a year ago, off a mark just 3lb higher - and has subsequently run with credit, off higher marks.
Certainly his seasonal debut third to Nuts Well off a mark of 146, suggests that he should be very competitive off his current mark of 138.
Malystic is a hard one to assess, making his seasonal debut.
He threatened to be a good horse last year - but the market is likely to provide the  best pointer on his return.
Cheddleton is an admirable horse - but he looks in the grip of the handicapper; whilst Cedar Hill will have his work cut out to follow up his recent win in a much tougher race, off a 4lb higher mark.
Bun Doran is quite interesting, as he continues to slide down the handicap.
The race wasn’t run to suit at Sandown last time - and his previous second to Gunsight Ridge, is good form.
If he gets an uncontested lead, he could prove tough to pass.

3:30

Despite there being just 8 runners, it looks as if there will be a lot of pace in this…

Le Milos, Storm Control and Cloth Cap, all like to front run - so at least a couple of them are likely to be disappointed.
Le Milos has won his 2 most recent starts, at Exeter and Sandown, and led on both occasions.
He also jumped left both times - and as they are right handed courses, he should be better suited by racing left handed tomorrow.
A 4lb rise for his most recent win, looks fair - and he is likely to be right in the mix again tomorrow.
Strom Control ran a massive race last time, when runner up in the Sky bet chase.
He looked to have the race won, jumping the last - but idled on the run in and was caught close home.
It’s hard to argue with a 4lb rise - but it will need a personal best, if he is to defy his new mark of 141.
Cloth Cap won on this day last year (the Premier chase at Kelso) - but hasn’t done much since.
In fairness, he didn’t run badly in either the Grand National or the Ladbroke trophy - tho he failed to get home in both races.
The worry is that he may have a breathing issue - and if that’s the case, it won’t matter how far he drops in the handicap.
Mister Malarky is the best handicapped horse in the race, on a mark 13lb lower than when third in the old Racing Post chase, just over a year ago.
He’s disappointed in 4 subsequent runs for Colin Tizzard - but makes his debut for Richard Bandy tomorrow and if he has him right, then he could prove very hard to beat.
Powerstone Park steps up in grade after a good win at Hereford.
It’s guesswork as to whether he can be competitive in tomorrows stronger company.
It’s a similar story with Soyouthinksoagain; whilst Undersupervision will need to improve on his 2 recent runs in open company.
Legends Gold is quite interesting, based on her third to Snow Leopardess at Bangor in November.
She’s not matched that level of form in 3 subsequent runs, but if she bounces back tomorrow, she’s capable of going close.

Newbury

1:15

This isn’t the most competitive veterans chase ever run - but it’s still a pleasing puzzle..!

It’s interesting to see Prime Venture in the field.
He won the final of last years series at Sandown at the start of January.
However, he was well suited by the desperate ground that day - and off a 7lb higher mark, on quicker ground, it’s hard to make a case for him.
Of more interest, is Aso.
He was sent off at just 7/2 for that race, but didn’t handle the ground and was pulled up.
He runs off a mark 7lb lower tomorrow - so is a stone better off with Prime Venture.
On better ground, that should be more than enough for him to reverse the form.
He’s just about the best handicapped horse in the race - though whether he’ll be at his best over 3 miles in soft ground, is a different matter.
That’s also the case with Kauto Riko.
He put up a personal best last time, when fourth to Chantry House in the Cotswold chase.
If he could be guaranteed to run to that level of form he would win - but alas, he can’t !
That said, the booking of 5lb claimer, Kieren Buckley, is an eye catching move - and suggests that connections are trying to give the horse every chance…
Indy Five is the solid option in the race - and it’s hard to see him not running well.
However, he’s a 12 year old, with little in hand of his mark, so he doesn’t set an insurmountable standard.
It’s quite hard to make a case for Christmas in April, Saint Xavier and Minellacelebration - so Encounter a Giant is the most interesting of the rest.
He’s only run 3 times under rules, and didn’t show much when pulled up on his seasonal debut 3 weeks ago at Exeter.
However, he should be better for that run - and unlike his opponents still has some scope for improvement.

1:50

Paul Nicholls has a tremendous record in this race (he’s won 5 of the last 8 runnings), so with his stable seemingly back in form, it’s hardly surprising that Tamaroc du Mathan has been well backed.
He’s a young horse, who looks well handicapped on a mark of 142, based on his runs in a couple of grade 2 novice events last season.
However, he has only been seen twice this season, suggesting he’s had issues - he’s also considered best on good ground (which he’s unlikely to get).
It’s not easy balancing everything up - he almost certainly has the ability to win - but may not necessarily be able to show his best…
He’s disputing favouritism in the early market, with Dublin Four.
He was impressive when winning over course and distance in November - but looked in trouble when falling at the second last at Newbury on his only subsequent run.
Again, he’s a hard one to assess, as he probably has the ability to win - but it’s guesswork as to whether he’ll be at his best.
Glen Forsa bounced back to form, when winning last time at Musselburgh.
However, he faces sterner opposition tomorrow - and off a 5lb higher mark.
Farinet disappointed last time, but that was over 3 miles on good to soft ground at Sandown.
He should be much better suited by half a mile less and softer ground tomorrow - and whilst he’s moving up the handicap, the full extent of his ability may not yet have been revealed.
Paint the Dream is very feasibly handicapped, back on the mark he won from on his seasonal debut at Chepstow in October.
His 3 subsequent runs haven’t been as good - but they’ve not been bad either - and the handicapper may have been a little premature in dropping his mark.
It’s not easy making a case for the other 5 - though Kildisart is certainly handicapped to run well, if he’s anywhere near his best, after 18 months on the sidelines…