End of season report - 2021-22

 Introduction

I made very few changes to the service for the tenth TVB season.
The tips/Best bets had been profitable for the previous 9 seasons - and my main aim was to make it as easy as possible for everyone to follow them.

The official (proofed) bets again consisted of Best bets and Matrix bets - and I continued to only suggest bets in big races; issuing when the markets were relatively mature - and avoiding each way.

The idea being, that all subscribers should have been able to get on all of the suggested bets - regardless of whether they had active bookmaker accounts or needed to use the exchanges.

The belief was that all quoted prices were ‘fair’ - and should have been achievable relatively easily (either immediately - or in the lead up to the race).

I think that the usability objectives were achieved - but almost certainly at the expense of profitability…


Best bets

For the first time in 10 years, the Best bets (formerly tips), were unprofitable to follow - very unprofitable !

Across the course of the season, just 82 Best bets were issued, with 42pts staked.

They incurred a loss 15.25pts (16.28pts at BSP).

The numbers are so bad, they don’t make sense…

If you simply picked out horses at random, you would expect to make a 10-15% loss (the bookmaker margin) - so a loss of more than triple that, suggests either bad luck - or a potential lay system !

Across the entire season, only 7 Best bets won: by contrast, 15 of the Best bets finished second.
This suggests that the Best bets were unlucky - accepting that it is a relatively crude measure.

A better measure of luck, is in-running low prices.
If a horse trades at 2 IR, it has a slightly better than 50:50 chance of winning a race.

18 of the Best bets traded at less than 2 (in fact, less than 1.8) - but only 7 of those won.
This strongly suggests that the Best bets were unlucky and that there should have been 2 or 3 more winners…

The size of the ‘luck’ impact can be estimated, by taking half the profit for every horse that traded at 2 or less IR (regardless of whether it goes on to win).

Doing this, suggests that the Best bets should have made a loss for the season of 4.92pts.
Clearly that’s not great - but it’s a 10pt improvement on what actually happened…

The bottom line however, is that even with the luck taken out, the Best bets were likely to have recorded a loss - so the cost of usability was greater than any profit might have been.

In short, they can’t continue…

Relatively early in the season, I realised this might happen - and sent out an email advising such, in the middle of December.

Ignoring ‘luck’ (variance), the 2 issues which I high-lighted in that email, continued throughout the season:

I limit myself to ‘big’ races, as they have the strongest betting markets, however, small field, uncompetitive races, blighted the season.
Too often, a significant number of the races I looked at, just weren’t suitable for betting.

In those that were suitable for betting, the issue was that ‘value’ prices weren’t there at the time I was issuing.
This tends to be caused by either the plethora of influential tipsters, who mark bookmakers cards, progressively earlier - or the enhanced placed terms in the big handicaps, which mean bookmakers offer poor ‘win’ prices….

As a consequence, on most of the days when I issued bets, I really struggled to find anything worthy of being a Best bet.
This meant that volume was greatly down - and variance was able to have a much bigger impact (and happened to have a negative impact).


Matrix bets

Matrix bets were introduced last season, primarily to support the Best bets.

They come in 3 ‘flavours’:
- savers to cover main dangers to Best bets
- weaker bets which don’t warrant being Best bets
- extensive dutching in big field races
The 3 types of bets were bundled together to provide an offering which could be followed on the exchanges and which I hoped would be reduce the variance with the Best bets.

Across the course of the season, 325 Matrix bets were issued, with 451 units staked - and at BSP, they made a profit of 38.5 units.

There were 34 winners - which means they had a bigger winning percentage than the Best bets (which really shouldn’t have happened)

In terms of profitability, then it’s a reasonable return - despite them also experiencing very poor luck towards the end of the season (somebody up there had clearly got it in for me !).

From Cheltenham onwards, there were 19 Matrix bets that traded at less than 2 - and only 6 of them won.
That suggests they were 3 or 4 winners short of where they should have been during that period.
Most of the 13 losers were at double digit prices, including horses with BSPs of 25, 40 & 27.

It’s fair to say that the profits from the Matrix bets could have been much greater.

I’m not sure how things fared luck wise, in the earlier part of the season (the sheer volume of Matrix bets - and the fact their main purpose was to reduce variance - meant that I wasn’t as focused on them), though I do recall a number of near misses (accepting that they do tend to be more memorable !).

Interestingly, the profits on the Matrix bets weren’t as great at CEP (current exchange price at the time of issue).
Profits at CEP were 17 units - though they were hit much harder by the poor luck at the end of the season (the profit at CEP was 60 units, prior to Cheltenham).

Unlike the Best bets, the suggestion was that the Matrix bets could be followed profitably - though their reliance on exchange liquidity, makes them particularly vulnerable to market strength…  


Unofficial bets and the forum

There were very few unofficial bets, this season.

I did cover some mid-week races, in the pre-Christmas period - but there was nothing suitable in January or February (and I was looking !); whilst the spring festivals of March and April, are covered by the official bets.

I also decided against offering any ante-post suggestions - though George handled this area very well in the early part of the season.
He suggested a number of excellent bets - but luck didn’t smile on him either, which is always a danger with ante-post betting (high risk, for potentially big reward).

The forum was held together by Chris, and his Cache.
The Cache was born in the TVB off-season - and has been evolving ever since.
It’s now a comprehensive table, which Chris produces every day, for every handicap - ranking runners by CSR.
It’s a hugely valuable resource which can be used by anyone looking for a quick route into a race.

Both Craig and Francis created profitable threads, on which they posted selections  throughout the season.
Craigs ‘trainer change’ thread hit a 125/1 winner with its third selection, so had the season sorted very early !
Whilst Francis’s ‘Stable whispers’ thread, has consistently hit winners throughout the season, and has a ROI of almost 100%, at BSP.

There were also a couple of competitions run in the forum:
Gags retained his title in the December Naps competition - which was again run by Hayden.
Whilst Hayden himself was the main winner in the Cheltenham Tipping competition, run again this year, by Craig…

The other main activities in the forum, were connected to the core TVB offering.

Previews/reviews were posted for all of the official bet days.
The previews were posted the day before racing and were designed to provide early pointers on the big races; whilst the reviews enabled me to give my perspective on how the days action had unfolded (which too often this season, was not how I had hoped !)

I also ran Live threads in the forum, for all of the big betting days.
The theory is that it gives me a late opportunity to offer my views, having had chance to assess the ground and consider late market moves.
It’s certainly useful from a ground perspective - but reading late market moves is never easy (and many of the key ones, are extremely late).
Does a drifter now represent ‘value’ or is it a red flag ? Unfortunately, it tends to vary from horse to horse, only becoming obvious after the event…


Plans for next season

It’s fair to say that this season didn’t go as I’d hoped.

The Best bets are the service flagship - so having them record such an horrendous loss, begs plenty of questions…

Most of you will have followed the Best bets and therefore lost money - and that doesn’t sit well with me.
Their poor results also impacted the general service vibe - and unsurprisingly, the forum was more downbeat than it’s been in previous seasons.
We all know that it’s called ‘gambling’ for a reason - but that doesn’t make losing feel any better….

On the flip side, I am confident that a chunk of the issue, was simply down to poor luck (variance).
However, the Best bets didn’t have enough of an edge to cope with the ill fortune.

By contrast, the Matrix bets did have sufficient edge to be able to deal with the bad luck - and that gives me hope.

My feeling is that the Matrix represents the path forward - with the Best bets incorporated into it.
This seasons Best bets would have dragged it down (probably to a loss) - however, I suspect that would have been offset to an extent, by more effective staking.

Going forward, my main concern with the Matrix, is that it is based around exchange prices - and it may prove difficult for a lot of people to secure these.
Clearly, there are significant unknowns/concerns for this as a path, so I would need to trial it for a few weeks, in order to see whether it could work.

My current thinking is that I would run the service from Nov 1st until Christmas - and only offer enhanced Matrix bets (as official bets).
I wouldn’t charge for this period - or accept any new subscribers onto the service.
If it worked, then I would charge for the 4 months from Jan-Apr inclusive.

The rest of the service (unofficial bets and the forum) would remain pretty much as is - I don’t think there are any major issues in those areas.

So that’s just about it.

I’d like to thank the guys who have continued to support the service (obviously headed by Chris - but also including Francis, Craig, Hayden & George) - but above all, I’d like to thank all of you for sticking with me through what has been a tough 6 months.

I’m sure that some of you have lost a lot of money - and for many of the new guys, the service will have been a huge disappointment.
I can only apologise if that’s the case - and assure you that I gave everything I could throughout.

Hopefully you’ll all have a good summer - and most of you will join me again in the autumn, when I’ll try to plot a slightly different path to profit !

TVB.

Review of the weekend (Apr 23rd)

The final day of what has been a challenging season, and I was hoping I might be able to go out with a bang.

However, the fields weren’t really there to be attacked - and finding bets wasn’t easy.

I ended up with just the one Best bet - and it ran in the very last race of the season.


The race itself had a decent betting shape - as I was able to rule out half the runners and was prepared to take on the 2 market leaders.

I ended up with 3 against the field - and made one of them, Call me Lord, the days Best bet.

And he ran well, travelling nicely throughout - before taking up the running at the second last.
However, the 2 others on my short-list - Kamaxos and Samarrive - travelled just as nicely, and they quickened past him, approaching the final flight.

Ultimately, it was Samarrive who proved best, staying on strongly up the hill, for a convincing win.

For whatever reason (and I’d struggle to justify it), I chose to leave him out of the Matrix - but covered Kamaxos.

So somehow, I managed to short-list the first 3 home - but turned it into a losing race (it reminded me of the Pertemps final at Cheltenham, where I did similar - if a little more spectacularly !).

The days other bets were all for the Matrix - and it was a case of close, but no cigar…

In the opener, I sided with Doctor Parnassus and Alto Alto, in what appeared to be a very trappy contest.
However, the betting suggested it wasn’t that trappy, as Knappers Hill was backed at the exclusion of almost everything else - and did indeed prove a class apart.
Alto Alto ran well to finish third - but Doctor Parnassus finished well beaten, looking as if he’d had enough for the season.
In the big race of the day (the B365 Gold Cup), I took 4 against the field - but didn’t manage to find the winner.
It was a slightly strange race, in that very few of the runners ever had a chance of winning.
Step Back led from the start until the third last - at which point, Hewick took over, and that was that !
Musical Slave stayed on for an honourable second - but never looked like catching the winner; and whist Enrillo ran well to a point - he weakened out of things, in the final half mile.
Streets of Doyen didn’t jump well enough: whilst El Paso Wood simply wasn’t good enough.
Nelson River was the only other Matrix bet on the day - but he ended up a little frustrating.
I sided with him, as I felt that his race might fall apart (due to an abundance of front runners) - and that he may be able to take advantage .
And I’d read the race right, as the pace was overly strong and the front runners didn’t get home.
Unfortunately however, he was one of the horses forcing the pace !
He weakened out of things after the fourth last, enabling the pair who had been held up to fight out the finish…

And so ended the 2021-22 season.

It seemed an appropriate finish, with me managing to show rare skill, to dodge winners and side with horses that found a variety of different ways to get beaten !

The situation with the final race really did seem to encapsulate the entire season…


I’ll now get working on the End of season report - which I’ll look to get out before next weekend.

The numbers won’t make for pleasant reading - but I’ll try to find some positives to take out of the past 6 months…

TVB

Bets/staking rationale

Best bets

Sandown

5:15
Call me Lord 0.5pt win 11/2

Matrix bets

Sandown

1:50
Doctor Parnassus 1 unit win CEP 8.2 FP 7
Alto Alto 1 unit win CEP 16 FP 11

3:32
Musical Slave 1 unit win CEP 9.2 FP 9
Streets of Doyen 1 unit win CEP 11.5 FP 11
Enrilo 1 unit win CEP 6.2 FP 6
El Paso Wood 1 unit win CEP 60 FP 34

4:40
Nelson River 1 unit win CEP 24 FP 15

5:15
Kamaxos 1 unit win 12.5 FP 11

Small fields for the condition races at Sandown, have effectively turned a 7 race card into a 4 race card (from a betting perspective).

2 of the 4 remaining races, are novice handicaps - and they are difficult to tackle with confidence.

As a consequence, I was left with just 2 races in which to try and find strong bets…

The first of those is the B365 Gold cup - and whilst it’s a very interesting race, it’s also very competitive.
Chances can be given to a number of the runners, making it a race best tackled via the Matrix.

I therefore had to turn to the final race on the card - a decent handicap hurdle - to find the days best bet - and fortunately, I found something suitable (eventually !).

I’ve supplemented that bet, with a few more for the Matrix.
Here’s the thinking…


Sandown

It’s not hard to make a case for at least half a dozen of the runners in the opening race (1:50).
Maybe not too surprisingly, most of them are at the head of the market, so finding ‘value’ is tricky…
I like Doctor Parnassus best, on the back of a solid run in the Triumph hurdle - and in receipt of the 4 year old weight allowance.
Whilst at a bigger price, Alto Alto looks to represent a bit of value, for a stable that’s in very good form.
I couldn’t be confident about either- but they are both worth covering for the Matrix.

I just about like Mister Fisher best in the 2:25 - but I wouldn’t be interested in backing him at 7/4.
In fairness, you are never going to get much bigger about a well fancied horse in a 4 horse race - which is part of the issue with small fields.
However, one mistake and the game will be over - so just the random ‘luck’ element, makes it hard to get involved at that kind of price.
In truth, no result would hugely surprise me, so this has to be a watching race…

It’s a similar story in the 3:00.
I like Nube Negra best - but can’t bring myself to back him (or suggest backing him) at around 7/4.
He will have everything in his favour today - so there should be no excuses.
That said, he is up against a course specialist in Greaneteen - whilst Sceau Royal has the ability to go close.
7/4 is probably a fair price for Nube Negra - but it’s not one that’s going to draw me in…

The B365 Gold cup (3:32) looks very competitive and it’s not easy to whittle down the field.
I think Enrillo is the most likely winner - but he’s priced up accordingly and can only be suggested as a saver.
Musical Slave is the best handicapped horse in the race - and Philip Hobbs has a good record with horses running twice in a week. He warrants inclusion in the Matrix.
Streets of Doyen has ticks in plenty of boxes - and whilst his jumping is a concern, if he gets things right, he could be hard to beat.
The final one of interest, is El Paso Wood. His chance isn’t obvious - but I think he could be capable of a big run, for a stable which is flying at the moment.
Hopefully one of the 4 will come home in front.

The 4:07 is another small field race in which it is hard to find an angle…
Scaramanga strikes me as the most likely race winner - but at 2/1, he’s not a betting proposition.
If there is a bet in the race, it’s likely to be Indefatigable - but she would need to drift to 4/+ for me to be prepared to take a risk.
She finished runner up in this race 12 months ago, and this a arguably a slightly weaker renewal.
On the flip side, she took a heavy fall on her most recent start, which isn’t an ideal preparation for any race !

I’d struggle to choose between the market leaders in the 4:40 - so am disinclined to try !
Brief Ambition is a very good jumper - and that could be a real asset at Sandown.
However, he is stepping up in class - and is likely to be pressurised for the lead.
I can see a scenario in which the race falls apart - and that would suit one of the finishers…
Up the Straight is well handicapped, but is a bit of an under-achiever; whilst Jacamar isn’t particularly well handicapped.
At the prices, it’s therefore worth taking a small risk on Nelson River, who has a chance and has been under-estimated by the market.

The 5:15 is the best betting race of the day.
There’s a reasonable sized field - and a few of the runners can be dismissed.
Whilst I respect the chances of the 2 market leaders - Fifty Ball and Press your Luck - I’m prepared to take them on.
The 2 of main interest, are Kamaxos and Call me Lord.
Kamaxos ran really well at Newbury, 3 runs ago - and definitely has a chance; however, I think he may struggle to beat Call me Lord.
He has a tremendous record at Sandown - and an even better record at this meeting (2 wins and an unlucky third).
He’s been running well this season and is now a very well handicapped horse (20lb below his peak rating).
He has ticks in almost every box - and is the best bet of the day.
Kamaxos is worth covering for the Matrix - just in case Call me Lord doesn’t deliver…

Apr 23rd - Preview for Sandown

 Tomorrow will be the final day of the 2021-21 NH season - and also the final day of the TVB season.

There is just the one card - at Sandown - and the fields, at least for the 3 graded races, are a little disappointing…

I’d be inclined to blame the quick ground - but in reality, it’s been the same situation, for almost the entire season.

I’ve lost count of the number of small field condition races that I’ve previewed - and there are 3 more tomorrow.

As a consequence, I’m likely to be looking for bets in the handicaps - and just hoping that someone else doesn’t beat me to the punch ! (which has also happened, many times this season).

Here are my early thoughts on the 7 races that make up tomorrows Sandown card.


Sandown

1:50

With 13 unexposed novices competing, the opening race on the card looks a particularly tough one to solve.

I was quite taken by Whizz Kid, on his most recent start at Aintree, when I felt he looked the best horse in a fair race.
He ran a bit too freely that day and could only finish fourth - but if he can settle better tomorrow (and Sam TD in the saddle, may be a help with that), then he looks the one to beat.
That said, he faces a host of potentially decent rivals, headed by Knappers Hills.
He was a top class bumper horse last season - and whilst he’s not hit the same heights over hurdles this season, he has still posted some decent efforts.
His best runs have come over 2 miles on quick ground - and he will get that tomorrow.
Whilst he has a lot of weight to carry, he could be different class to his rivals…
Doctor Parnassus ran in the Triumph hurdle on his most recent start.
He didn’t feature in that race - but he is likely to find this much easier.
He won his 2 starts prior to the Triumph - and was only beaten 12 lengths at Cheltenham.
He will receive the 8lb juvenile allowance tomorrow, and that could be decisive…
Hasty Parisian and Privatory are the 2 other 4 year olds running in the race - and cases can be made for both of them.
The former represents the Milton Harris stable which has done so well with juveniles this season; whilst the latter has finished first and second on his 2 starts for Gary Moore, and has plenty of scope for improvement.
Head Law is on a steep upward curve for Jonjo - and certainly can’t be discounted; whilst Alto Alto was a good winner last time at Plumpton, having shown ability on his previous start.
He’s another who has plenty of scope for improvement.
The remaining 5 runners aren’t quite as appealing - but equally can’t be completely ruled out.

2:25

It’s disappointing to see just the 4 runners declared for this - even if all of them can be given a chance.

A small field and 2m6f on good ground, should be ideal for Mister Fisher - and he looks the one to beat.
He was quite impressive when beating Eldorado Allen in similar conditions at Kempton in January - though he has disappointed in 2 subsequent starts.
However, the ground was against him at Ascot the following month: whilst a bad mistake cost him any chance at Aintree, a fortnight ago.
He finished runner up to Frodon in this race 12 months ago - and it’s not hard to see him going one place better tomorrow.
That said, on official adjusted ratings he should struggle to beat Saint Calvados.
He also ran in the Ascot and Aintree races - but like Mister Fisher, didn’t really perform in either race.
I would expect him to also do much better tomorrow, in a small field and on quick ground - and it’s not easy to choose between the pair.
Nuts Well and Erne River both have a bit more to prove - but certainly can’t be dismissed.
The former is a serial over-achiever (a rare thing in racing !) - and whilst he looks to have a bit too much on his plate tomorrow, it wouldn't be a massive surprise if he rose to the occasion.
Erne River looks the least likely winner, as a novice taking on experienced horses.
He was well fancied for a Grade1 novice event at Aintree on his most recent start, but fell before the serious action had got underway.
Tomorrows small field will probably help him - but it will be some achievement if he can win a Grade 2 open contest on just his fourth start over fences (and also on the back of a fall).

3:00

Whilst this race has one more runner than the previous one, it’s arguably less competitive, as it’s quite hard to make a case for the 2 outsiders…

Rouge Vif is held by Nube Negra on a couple of form lines; whilst Sky Pirate doesn’t look good enough for a race of this class (he is rated 17lb inferior to Nube Negra).

Of the remaining 3 runners, then Sceau Royal looks the least likely winner.
He’s an admirable horse - and he ran really well on his most recent start, when finishing third at Aintree.
That was one his first try at 2m4f - and whilst I don’t expect him to be inconvenienced by the step back in trip, I don’t think he will be good enough to beat Greaneteen or Nube Negra.
Greaneteen had his measure in this race 12 months ago - and as the younger, more progressive horse, it’s reasonable to think that will again by the case tomorrow.
Greaneteen built on that win, when taking the Tingle Creek on his second start this season.
He was then put in his place by Shishkin at Kempton; before disappointing badly behind Chacun Pour Soi at the Dublin Racing festival.
Greaneteen didn’t run any kind of a race that day - and his effort can almost certainly be ignored.
If it is, then based on his win in the Tingle Creek, he is very much the one to beat.
When he won the Tingle Creek, he had Nube Negra 12 lengths back in fourth place - though the suggestion was that Nube Negra didn’t run his race that day (he was sent off 4/1 second fav).
Nube Negra is a horse who runs his best races fresh, so the fact he’s not been seen since December is a positive.
He will have his work cut out to reverse the form with Greaneteen - but he will have perfect conditions tomorrow and Greanenteen is likely to find him a much tougher proposition.
Choosing between the pair isn’t easy and the odds aren’t really there to take a risk.
At 2/1, I’d be prepared to take a chance on Nube Negra - but it remains to be seen whether he will ever reach that price…

3:32

The first 3 home is last years renewal of the B365 Gold cup will renew rivalry in this years race - and it’ll be interesting to see which one of the trio comes out on top.

12 months ago, Enrillo was first past the post, with Potterman, second and Kittys Light, third; however, the winner badly impeded the third placed horse - and as a consequence, the stewards placed Enrillo behind Kittys Light, meaning that Potterman was the official race winner !
There shouldn’t be much between the 3 of them again tomorrow - though Enrillo travelled through last years race like the best horse - and if he consents to settle a bit better tomorrow, he’s likely to take lot of beating.
That said, as a 6 year old, Kittys Light has probably got the greatest scope for improvement; whilst Potterman will come into tomorrows race in good form, having won his most recent start at Kelso.
In short, each of them can be given a chance…
Cap du Nord can also be given a chance.
He finished fifth in last years race - but was only beaten 5 lengths and is better off at the weights with the other 3 tomorrow.
He also arguably recorded a personal best on his penultimate start, when taking the Coral Trophy at Kempton, from Kittys Light.
He’s subsequently disappointed at Aintree - but it wouldn’t be a massive surprise if he were to bounce back.
Like Cap du Nord and Kittys Light, Win my Wings is trained by Christian Williams - and she put up a phenomenal performance on her most recent start, when romping home in the Scottish national.
It’s rare to see a top class handicap won so easily - though she has paid for it with a 14lb rating rise - and is likely to find life much tougher under top weight tomorrow.
On strict reading of the form book, Win my Wings has absolutely no chance of beating Musical Slave.
The pair clashed at Exeter in January and Win my Wings came out on top by 2 lengths.
However she will be 23lb worse off tomorrow - and even allowing for the huge improvement she has subsequently made, that should be enough for the form to be reversed.
In fairness, Musical Slave hasn’t stood still himself, winning 2 of his 3 subsequent races - including at Haydock last Saturday.
He is able to run off the same mark tomorrow, as it is an early closing race - and provided he has recovered from last weekend exertions, he should go very well.
Flegmatic has won his 2 most recent races for the Skeltons - and appears to have been targeted at this.
However, he’s never run beyond 3 miles - so his ability to stay the extended trip will need to be taken on trust.
Streets of Doyen is a potentially interesting Irish raider.
With just 5 runs over fences, he is very hard to assess - however, he will love the quick ground and should relish the trip.
Furthermore, his trainer, John McConnel, has a very good record with his runners in England.
Of the outsiders, then Fidux and El Paso Wood, appeal most…
Both ran last time in the Scottish National, behind Win my WIngs.
Fidux did much the better of the pair that day, finishing fourth - and can definitely be given a chance, off a 2lb lower mark.
It’s harder to make a case for El Paso Wood, based on that run. However, I quite fancied him that day, on the back of a really good run in the Midlands National.
If he can bounce back to that level of form, then he is certainly capable of outrunning his odds.

4:07

Again, there’s a disappointing turn out for this graded hurdle race - with just the 4 runners…

Assuming his is fully tuned, then Scaramanga looks the one to beat.
His official mark of 150 is only a pound higher than that of McFabulous and Fussil Raffles.
However, the former has to concede him 6lb; whilst the latter will be having his first run over hurdles, in more than 2 years.
Scaramanga himself, hasn’t run over hurdles since winning on this card 12 months ago. However, he ran on the flat over the summer - so it’s only 7 months since he last set foot on a racecourse.
That could be a concern - but he defied a similar absence when winning at Ascot last March - and I’m confident that Paul Nicholls will have him fully tuned for this.
The fact that Harry Cobden is riding, instead of taking the mount on stablemate McFabulous, also seems to support that view - particularly as the last named has the best recent form in the race, courtesy of his third in the Grade 1 Aintree hurdle, a fortnight ago.
McFabulous was a little flattered to secure third place in that race - but he still ran well and tomorrows contest isn’t as strong.
Indefatigable could prove to be Scaramanga biggest rival.
She finished runner up in this race 12 months ago - and has run a number of good races this season.
She was impressive when winning at Wetherby in October - and was a touch unlucky to be beaten by Martello Sky at Cheltenham in December.
She was also in the process of running a big race at that course on her most recent start, when falling at the second last in the mares race at the festival.
Provided she has fully recovered from that, she should again go very close tomorrow.

4:40

This is the smallest field handicap on the card - but it’s not an easy race to figure out…

Beakstown has been installed the early favourite on the back of his recent win at Ayr.
That was arguably in a slightly stronger race - but he won well, kicking a few lengths clear after jumping the third last and holding on when challenged.
He has been raised 6lb for the win - but that’s fair enough, and provided he’s in the same form tomorrow, he should take the beating.
Brief Ambition has won his last 3 starts - and has every chance of notching a 4 timer.
He was impressive when making all at Kempton in November - and has subsequently won 2 small field races at Ludlow.
The biggest issue for him is that he is now 17lb higher in the weights - and will be facing much stuffer opposition.
However, if he can get into a rhythm up front (as he did at Kempton), he could again prove hard to peg back.
That said, Beakstown also likes to race prominently - as does Flic ou Voyou and Presentandcounting - so there could be plenty of pace in the race.
That would suit Up the Straight, Jacamar and Nelsons River.
The former is the best handicapped horse in the race - but he has become a bit disappointing.
By contrast, Jacamar isn’t particularly well handicapped - but that’s because he takes his chances when he gets them !
He’s won 2 of his last 5 starts - and definitely has a chance of making it 3 from 6, tomorrow.
Nelsons River also has a chance,
He’s only run twice before over fences - and has finished first and second, despite not really being bred for the job.
I instinctively feel that something should be too good for him tomorrow - though I wouldn’t be surprised to see him outrun his odds.

5:15

The final race of the NH season - and it looks tricky enough to solve…

Press your Luck just about sets the race standard, courtesy of his last time out win at Kempton in a similar race.
He was quite impressive that day - following up a win at Wincanton, in February - and whilst he was raised 8lb for that effort, it may not be enough to stop him completing his hattrick.
Fifty Ball is ahead of him in the market, following his last time out win Ascot.
He should still be competitive off a 3lb higher mark - but this will be a tougher test.
Samarrive was really impressive in winning a decent race over the course in October.
However, the handicapper didn’t take kindly to that and handed him an 11lb rating rise.
He’s not featured in 2 subsequent races - but has dropped 4lb in the rating as a consequence,
He steps up in trip by half a mile tomorrow - and it wouldn’t be a great surprise to see him bounce back to form.
Champagne Court finished 6 lengths behind Press Your Luck at Wincanton - but will be a stone better off tomorrow.
That should give him a fair chance of reversing the form, returned to hurdles after a couple of solid runs over fences.
Kamaxos ran really well when third to Dashel Drasher at Newbury 3 runs ago - and whilst he did no more than expected when hacking up at Market Rasen on his most recent start, the win may well have boosted his confidence…

Review of the weekend (Apr 16th-18th)

 The focus for the penultimate weekend of the TVB season, was supposed to be on the 3 day Fairyhouse Easter carnival. However, finding bets was difficult - so much so, that I didn’t even bother trying on Saturday !

Instead, my attention was on Haydock, where it was the Challenger series finals day - and a series of quality handicaps, provided some decent opportunities.

I tried finding some bets at Fairyhouse on Sunday - but failed ! So it was Monday (Irish National day) before I was finally able to suggest anything there…


Saturday

I was almost spoilt for choice, with regard to possible bets at Haydock - though I was very mindful of how weak the early markets were…

That’s the issue with tipping in anything other than the biggest races - prices go almost instantly, meaning that people are forced to take below the odds, wait and hope there’s a drift - or have to miss out completely…

I ended up suggesting a couple of Best bets - and whilst they were both in races where the market wasn’t totally robust, I felt that their prices were ‘fair’ (so would rebound, even if they initially shortened).

The first of them was Lime Drop in the mares hurdle.

I liked her profile as a progressive mare, with a really good attitude - and approaching the second last, it looked as if she was going to win.
However, she couldn’t quicken past leaders who weren’t slowing - and ultimately she could only manage an honourable fourth.

However, there was a consolation, as the race was won by Cubswin - and as I considered her the main danger to Lime Drop, I covered her for the Matrix.
She led throughout - and whilst I thought she might get reeled in after the last, she was ultra game and battled all the way to the line.
It was pleasing change of fortune for the Matrix, which has had a number of big priced runners-up recently.
Cubsin bucked that trend, winning with a BSP of 44 (she was actually trading at 60, just a couple of mins before the off).

Deyrann de Carjac was the second Best bet of the day.
I’d had him in mind for the the Middle distance chase final, since February - and with him finally getting ideal conditions, he should have taken a lot of beating.

However, my enthusiasm for him was tempered by the fact that his trainer, Alan King, also saddled 2 other runners in the race - and stable jockey, Tom Cannon, was on board Isolate…

That gave me a dilemma - but when Dayrann drifted to 8/1, I took the plunge and suggested him, covering on Isolate for the Matrix.

However, the race panned out disappointingly…

Deyrann is clearly not the horse he once was, as his jumping was unconvincing - and it was obvious from some way out, that he wasn’t going to win.

By contrast, Isolate travelled strongly - but he wasn’t able to raise him game up the home straight, and ultimately finished well beaten…

I couldn’t get the prices I was after on a couple of other fancies on the card, so the remaining bets on the days, were relatively small ones for the Matrix.

The first of them was Castel Gandolfo - and I suspect he should have won.
Certainly, he was travelling like the winner, approaching the last - and I was optimistic when he hit the front, soon after that obstacle.
However, he didn’t seem keen to run on - and Zabeel Champion battled back to beat him.
With a BSP of 27, it was another frustrating near miss for the Matrix.
Grosvenor Court was a speculative suggestion in the stayers hurdle - but he never really featured.
The race was won by favourite, An Tailliur, who I would have been keen to at least cover on, if he’d been any kind of price in the morning (he wasn’t - though did subsequently drift).
Maid O Malley was the final bet on the day - but she ran disappointingly.
In fairness, that was always a possibility, after a hard race (and fall !) at Cheltenham.
The price was there to justify a risk in the morning (5/1) - but she had been backed in to 7/2 at the off (and I could have resisted that !)


Monday

The Fairyhouse races on Sunday, had the wrong shapes for betting - and whilst they weren’t significantly better on Monday, I did manage to find some opportunities.

They included Santa Rossa, who I felt was worth a risk in the Grade 2 hurdle.

She had quite a bit to find on the book - but she also had a very progressive profile and at an opening show of 10/1, I felt she was worth risking.
That price became 8/1 when Pricewise tipped her - and 6/1, when second favourite, Flame Bearer was withdrawn.

That was the point at which I was able to tip her - and I felt she just about warranted support, up against a favourite who had question marks over him, on the likely quick ground.
However, he was withdrawn half an hour before the race - and all of a sudden, Santa Rossa was favourite !

Whilst the withdrawals were never going to harm her chances, I suggested her mainly as a ‘value’ play - and by the off, there was no value in a price of 3/1 !
In fairness, that wouldn’t have stopped her from winning, if she had been good enough - but unfortunately, she was no match for Darasso.
He was the from pick in the race - but looked potentially vulnerable.
However, everything fell right for him - and ultimately he proved a bit too strong for Santa Rossa.

The only other bets on the day, were in the Irish National - where I took half a dozen against the field (of 27).

And a couple of them ran really well - most notably, Frontal Assault.
He was up with the pace throughout - but so too was Lord Lariot - and it was the latter who ultimately proved the stronger.
I did have a good look at the winner pre-race - but there was nothing in his form that suggested he would be good enough.
He was sent off at 40/1 - though I suspect that if his trainer hadn’t saddled the 150/1 winner of the race 12 months ago, he would have been nearer that price himself !
Velvet Elvis was the other Matrix bet to run well in the race.
He looked to have every chance between the final 2 fences - before his stamina ebbed away…

So once, again, across the weekend, the Matrix managed twice as many seconds, as winners.
I did hope that the balance might be about to right itself, when Cubswin won - but a couple of long priced runners up, stopped that from happening.

There’s now just one more day for things to level up - so I’m expecting the Matrix to get at least 10 winners on Saturday :)

TVB. 

Bets/staking rationale

Best bets

Fairyhouse

3:50
Santa Rossa 0.5pt win 13/2

Matrix bets

Fairyhouse

5:00
Full Time Score 1 unit win CEP 12 FP 11
Farclas 1 unit win CEP 15 FP 11
Ten Ten 1 unit win CEP 42 FP 21
Frontal Assault 1 unit win CEP 26 FP 21
Velvet Elvis 1 unit win CEP 18 FP 17
Enjoy D’Allen 1 unit win CEP 27 FP 26

From what I can tell, there wasn’t much more rain at Fairyhouse yesterday - and there’s not much forecast for today.
As a consequence, I would expect the ground to be riding similar to yesterday (ie. yielding/soft).

In truth, Irish racing doesn’t really lend itself to betting, with bookmakers taking particularly defensive stances - and most of the markets, very fragile.

That wasn’t the only issue today - as of the 4 races I previewed, I could only find an angle into 2 of them...

As a consequence, there is just the one Best bet on the day - plus a few for the Matrix in the National.

Here’s the thinking…


Fairyhouse

Carrig Sam is by far the most likely winner of the 3:15 - but I’m not going to suggest backing a 10/3 fav in a 16 runner handicap.
You can get 4/1 on the exchanges, and that doesn’t strike me as a dreadful bet - though equally, it’s not an outstanding one.
At a bigger price, Folcano is a credible alternative - though Gordon Elliott also saddles Festival D’ex and that one seems quite popular in the betting.
Of the outsiders, Futurum Regem is moderately interesting - but officially this is just a watching race.

The 3:50 looks relatively open - and it’s worth taking a risk that Santa Rossa can show the required improvement to win.
She’s very lightly raced - but has consistently shown good form and has plenty of scope for further improvement.
It is a bit irritating that Pricewise has picked up on her, as that has probably shaved a couple of points off her price.
However, 6/1 is still a reasonable price in a race that may not take a lot of winning.

Provided he has recovered from his Cheltenham exertions, then Janidil should prove different class to his rivals in the 4:20.
His second pace in the Ryanair puts him head and shoulders above the other runners in the race, so he will need to under-perform if one of them is to win.
If that does happen, then Blackbow is the one most likely to take advantage - but the market tells you all of this, so there is no betting angle.
It’s another watching race…

I’ve taken half a dozen against the field in the Irish National (5:00) - and hopefully one of them will come home in front !
If any horse is going to run away with the race, then I think it will be Full Time Score - though it is just as likely that he will blow out !
I would expect Farclas to run his race and go very close.
There is a slight concern that he might not be quite well enough handicapped to win - but I certainly expect him to be right in the mix.
I think Ten Ten is probably the best bet in the race, at around 40.
He looked the right type for this race, at the back end of last season - and it strikes me that he has been targeted at the race, this time round.
Frontal Assault looks to be one of Gordon Elliotts better chances of winning the race - and I’m surprised he’s not shorter in the betting.
His form gives him every chance - whilst the market support he received last time at Cheltenham, suggests connections think he is well handicapped.
Velvet Elvis a potential big improver. He has question marks over him - but was very impressive on his most recent start and if he can build on that, he could well go close.
Enjoy D’Allen is the final one for the Matrix.
I nearly left him out - but I quite fancied him at Aintree and I’m not prepared to give Sods Law the opportunity to bite me !

Apr 18th - Preview for Fairyhouse

 It’s the final day of the 3 day Easter festival at Fairyhouse - with the main event, the Irish Grand National.

After a drying day yesterday, the decision was made to water the course in the evening - and then, in accordance with Sods Law, the rain arrived this afternoon..!

In fairness, conditions didn’t look too bad - with the ground appearing to be on the soft side.
However, if any more rain falls, then we could could be looking at an Irish National run on heavy - which wouldn’t be ideal.

Ofcourse, if no further rain materialises, the ground could be back close to good, by the time the big race gets underway !

It’s exactly the same situation, as the one we faced on the first day at Aintree - and it makes committing to bets early, decidedly tricky…

Obviously I’ll try and get a handle on things tomorrow morning before I issue any bets - but it’s a variable I could do without…

ITV will be showing 4 races from the course tomorrow - here are my early thoughts on each of them.


Fairyhouse

3:15

A field of 17 will go to post for this - and Carrig Sam stands out…
He won a similar race over the course at the end of February - on what was only his second run under rules
That was some effort - but he was very well backed that day, so clearly connections felt he was a well handicapped horse.
Ofcourse, there was always a danger that his inexperience might betray him - but it didn’t, and he made most for a comfortable win.
The handicapper has raised him 8lb for the win - but I doubt that will stop him and he very much looks the one to beat.
4 of the horses that finished behind him that day, re-oppose tomorrow, and at the revised weights, they all have a chance of beating him…
Of the quartet, the market likes Festival D’ex best.
He finished sixth behind Carrig Sam - but went on from that to finish runner up to Maxs Charm at Naas.
That was improved form - but he got a 3lb rating rise for it, so will only be 5lb better off with Carrig Sam tomorrow.
As a consequence, Decimation could be the one most likely to reverse the form.
He will be 8lb better off for a 6 length beating - and was also making his seasonal debut that day.
He’s since taken a heavy fall in the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham - and will be wearing first time cheek pieces tomorrow.
That’s quite a lot of variables to consider - and I’m not entirely sure how things will work out !
Away from that form line, Folcano looks quite interesting, on the back of a fair seventh in the Pertemps final at Cheltenham.
He may well appreciate the drop back in trip - and it will be no surprise if he runs a big race.

3:50

The first of two Grade 2s on the card - this is the more competitive event…

Thedevilscoachman has been installed quite a short priced favourite, on the back of a narrow win in a similar race at Navan in February.
In fairness, he won that race well - but may have been helped by the heavy ground (which he may - or may not - get again tomorrow !).
It looks significant that Mark Walsh has opted to ride him ahead of Darasso.
Both horses are owned by JP McManus (who retains Walsh), and Darasso arguably sets the standard for the race.
He’s a very consistent horse, and his official rating of 153 suggests he should be the  one to beat.
The fact that Walsh has deserted him, definitely enhances the claims of Thedevilscoachman.
Flame Bearer is hard to assess.
He’s a novice, with only 5 previous runs over hurdles - so it’s a little surprising that connections are pitching him into open company.
He has won grade 2 races on his 2 most recent starts - but he could find tomorrows race a bit tougher…
The 2 mares in the race are both interesting, in receipt of weight from their rivals.
Heaven Help Us in the more exposed of the pair - and has regularly shown herself to be of a standard that could see her at least placing.
Santa Rossa is much less exposed - and consequently harder to assess.
She has only run twice in the past 2 seasons - but won both races comfortably and really could be anything.
Jon Snow is another who could be anything.
He’s not run for nearly 2 years - but had a massive home reputation, early in his career.
That said, the fact that Paul Townend has chosen to ride Whisky Sour ahead of him, hardly advertises his claims - particularly as the last named looks held by Darasso.
Darver Star is the final one worthy of a mention.
He was hugely disappointing last time (when I made him a Best bet) - but that could have been down to quick ground.
If he gets soft (or even heavy) ground tomorrow - and bounces back, then he has the form to be right in the mix.

4:20

If he can again run to the same level as when chasing home Allaho in last months Ryanair chase, then Janidil will win this.
In fairness, that run wasn’t unexpected.
He won the grade 1 novice event at this meeting 12 months ago, and has consistently shown top class form in the intervening period.
The main question, is how much he took out of himself at Cheltenham - and unfortunately, we won’t know the answer to that, until it’s too late…
In addition to Janidil, Willie Mullins also trains the next 3 in the betting - and I never find that an appealing situation.
Jockey bookings suggest that Blackbow should be the one most likely to benefit if Janidil under-performs - and I would just about agree with that.
That said, based on official ratings, he has a few pounds to find with stablemate Easy Game - and if Paul Townend has elected to ride him, I would probably have taken the hint !
The fact he is on Blackbow however, suggests that Easy Game may need the run - whilst softening ground certainly won’t be in his favour…
The other 3 runners are all getting a bit long in the tooth.
Hardline looks just about the most interesting of the trio - but it’ll be a surprise if he proves good enough to win.

5:00

This is the third National that I’ve analysed in the past fortnight - so I should be getting the hang of it !
As always, I’ll start by pulling together a short-list - and look to use that to identify some bets tomorrow…

First on the short-list is Full Time Score.
He ran well at Limerick over Christmas (when I made him a Matrix bet) - and followed that up with a gutsy win at Fairyhouse in February.
He’s not absolutely guaranteed to see out tomorrows trip - and he would probably prefer some cut in the ground - but he has loads of potential and could be very well handicapped.
Farclas is more exposed - and isn’t outstandingly well handicapped.
However, his fifth place in last years Aintree Grand National, suggested this could be the perfect race for him - whilst the booking of Shane Fitzgerald, effectively puts him on a mark from which he should go very close.
I put Enjoy D’Allen in my Matrix for the Aintree National - but he unseated at the first fence.
At least that meant he didn’t have a hard race - and off the same mark, he has to be included on the short-list for this weaker race.
Lieutenant Command is not guaranteed to stay the trip - but if he does, he has form which suggests he could go very close.
He beat Max Flamingo and Floueur in a Beginners chase in November - and is weighted to confirm the form with both of them tomorrow.
He’s not shown too much in his 3 subsequent starts - though was still in with a chance when departing at the second last on his most recent start, in a hot handicap at Naas.
Frontal Assault disappointed on his most recent start, when well fancied for the Kim Muir at Cheltenham.
Prior to that, he had been narrowly beaten by Floueur and will be 4lb better off tomorrow.
It also looks significant that Jack Kennedy takes the ride (suggesting at least, that he is one of the more fancied of Gordon Elliotts 11 runners !)
Mark Walsh takes the ride on Ten Ten, suggesting that he is one of the more fancied JP McManus runners (he has 8 in the race !).
He looked the perfect sort for this race, when finishing runner up on his final start last season, at the Punchestown festival - and whilst he was pulled up on his first 2 runs of this campaign, his most recent second over hurdles, suggested that he retains all his ability.
Velvet Elvis put up a much improved effort on his most recent start, when raised in trip at Navan.
He’s only 6 - and has limited chasing experiences - but also has plenty of scope for improvement.
Midlands National winner, Screaming Colours, looks quite interesting off a fair mark, with Jamie Codd booked; whilst Ronald Pump also has to be of interest based on his hurdles form - and ran well over fences when runner up on his most recent start.
Favourite, Gaillard du Mesnil is another who clearly has a chance - though I’d be a little worried about his jumping, in such a big field…